Russia’s Grip on Bulgaria Will Test New Leader’s Anti-Graft Push
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Bulgaria’s political and economic ties to Russia pose the biggest risk to Prime Minister-elect Rumen Radev’s plan to fight corruption.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Bulgaria’s political and economic ties to Russia pose the biggest risk to Prime Minister-elect Rumen Radev’s plan to fight corruption.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.The 62-year-old former president is poised to end years of political gridlock after a landslide victory in Sunday’s election and he’s made cleaning up the courts and curbing the influence of a small but powerful elite his top priority. But he’s also calling for the European Union to revive its economic relationship with Russia, and that’s where his goals may come into conflict. Even after years of sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Bulgaria’s economy remains entangled with the Russian energy industry.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.A Russian-owned oil refinery, Lukoil Neftohim Burgas AD, is the country’s biggest company, generating revenue of more than $5 billion a year. Lukoil PJSC also owns a pipeline connecting the refinery to the capital Sofia and a network of some 220 gas stations around the country, all currently run by Bulgarian officials since Lukoil’s international assets were sanctioned by the US last October. In the EU’s poorest and most corrupt country (tied with Hungary), opposition politicians have been warning for years that Russia’s economic presence is at the root of much high-level graft. A gas pipeline to Russia through Turkey, completed in 2021, has been under investigation ever since and a decades-long plan for a Russian-designed nuclear power plant saw several former ministers charged with criminal offenses. “The next Bulgarian government needs to prioritize tackling strategic corruption,” said Ognian Shentov, chairman of the Center for the Study of Democracy, a think tank which has studied Kremlin influence networks in Europe. “That starts with addressing Russian energy.”To be sure, Bulgaria is deeply embedded in EU institutions now and joined the euro this year. Trade with Russia has plunged since the start of the war in Ukraine and the government is building a new military base as part of NATO’s efforts to strengthen its southern flank. And yet Radev is preparing to take office arguing that the EU should roll back sanctions on Russia in order to bring back cheap energy supplies and boost the bloc’s struggling manufacturers. As part of what he calls a “pragmatic” approach to relations with the Kremlin, he labeled countries providing military support to Ukraine as “warmongers.”“It is unacceptable to deny both geographical and economic realities,” he told supporters in the city of Pleven last month. “It is not normal to import oil from distant countries, through straits with high fees and risk, given that the cheap oil for which our refinery is adapted is only two days away by direct route across the Black Sea.”Those comments underline the geopolitical dimension to Radev’s victory. Analysts and political opponents agree that Radev is unlikely to replicate former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s role as Moscow’s main ally in Europe, holding up sanctions on Russia and aid for Ukraine. Indeed, Radev himself has said he won’t block funding for Kyiv as long his country isn’t on the hook. But Bulgaria potentially has other ways to help the Kremlin.The gas pipeline that triggered criminal investigations was completed just a year before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the connection between graft problems in Sofia and the geopolitics of energy. By circumventing Ukrainian territory the Balkan pipeline reduced what little leverage Kyiv had against President Vladimir Putin. More than four years into the war, the gas link is still generating revenue for Russia, although that is set to end next year when the EU is due to finally end gas imports from Russia.Radev, a former air force general, emerged from the conservative culture of the Bulgarian military and he appeals to a sector of the Bulgarian electorate that has had a longstanding affinity for the Kremlin. Part of that is due to the rampant pro-Kremlin disinformation on social media. But it is also a result of decades of conventional Russian propaganda and the shared history between Moscow and Sofia, where there’s a statue of Russian Czar Alexander II in the center of the city and a cathedral dedicated to Alexander Nevsky, a 13th century Russian prince. So Radev’s anti-corruption strategy skirts over the question of Russian influence and instead focuses on cleaning up the courts and putting checks on the powerful prosecutor’s office, which he has accused of working with organized crime in the past. To do that, he needs a super majority of a 160 votes in parliament. Despite his landslide victory, he’ll most likely seek the support of a pro-EU alliance which has repeatedly criticized him for aligning with Kremlin. The group has drawn up a detailed plan for bolstering the independence of the prosecutors, but that initiative will likely run up against the informal networks of influence that have grown up between Russian energy companies and officials. “Corruption in Bulgaria is not just a political issue,” said Dennis Shen, a lecturer in finance at the International School of Management in Berlin. “It is institutional, embedded across administrative layers, procurement systems, and parts of the judiciary. That makes quick wins unlikely.”Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.