ExxonMobil Is One of 2026's Hottest Stocks. Should You Still Own It?
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By Lee Samaha – Apr 20, 2026 at 4:05PM ESTKey PointsExxon Mobil's 2026 gains are tied to oil price spikes from the conflict.Bull and bear cases hinge on oil prices and Exxon’s business model.ExxonMobil (XOM +0.85%) stock is up almost 18% in 2026, even as the S&P 500 index is essentially flat. The move stems from the spike in oil prices driven by the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Still, the question is whether ExxonMobil is still worth holding now. Here are the bull and bear cases for the stock. The bulls' case for ExxonMobil The most optimistic case for the stock rests on the idea that the market is underestimating the potential for a "higher for longer" oil price. A previous analysis of oil futures suggests the market believes the impact of the conflict on oil prices will be relatively short-lived, with a return to muhc lower prices by autumn. ExpandNYSE: XOMExxonMobilToday's Change(0.85%) $1.24Current Price$147.68Key Data PointsMarket Cap$610BDay's Range$146.35 - $149.3752wk Range$101.19 - $176.41Volume16MAvg Vol23MGross Margin21.56%Dividend Yield2.76% That view may prove too optimistic, as the conflict is far from resolved, the strait is blockaded, and, although it's in almost everybody's interest to reopen it, there's no agreement on the conditions for its reopening. There's also major doubt about insurance coverage for shipping companies and cargo owners; there is no clarity yet on the full extent of energy infrastructure in the region or the risk premium that energy customers will now place on buying from countries in the Arabian Peninsula. Given all that, bulls say, ExxonMobil should be included in a list of no-brainer stocks to buy while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The bears' case for ExxonMobil The bears are divided into two camps. The first believes the oil futures market is correct and that oil prices will decline significantly in the coming months. If they do, then buying ExxonMobil for what's likely to prove to be a quarter or two of relatively high prices would be a mistake. The second camp includes investors sympathetic to the bulls' argument that oil prices will stay "higher for longer" but who don't see ExxonMobil as necessarily the best way to play the theme. After all, ExxonMobil has exposure to Qatar (a country in the Arabian Peninsula and the leading liquefied natural gas, or LNG, exporter through the Strait) through its LNG investments. Image source: Getty Images. In addition, ExxonMobil's downstream operations rely more on the spread between crude oil and refined product prices than on movements in oil prices. Furthermore, absent a rise in energy prices, ExxonMobil is essentially a low-growth, relatively-low-return-on-equity business, and it could struggle to raise production significantly even if prices rise. Is ExxonMobil stock a buy? I think the second group in the bears camp is probably right. While it absolutely makes sense to protect against downside risk from the conflict in the Gulf, investing in ExxonMobil is probably not the best way to do so. For those asking what is, I'd say something like Australian oil and LNG provider Woodside Energy Group. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Wall Street analysts expect ExxonMobil's earnings and cash flow to grow at a low-single-digit rate over the next five years. That means the stock needs a higher oil price to justify buying its 2.7% dividend yield right now.Read NextApr 17, 2026 •By Matt DiLallo3 Battle‑Tested Energy Stocks With the Balance Sheets to Handle the Next Iran‑Driven ShockApr 17, 2026 •By Rich SmithWhy ExxonMobil Stock Dropped on FridayApr 17, 2026 •By Rachel WarrenBest Blue Chip ETFs to Buy in 2026Apr 15, 2026 •By David Jagielski, CPAWorried About a Stock Market Crash? These 3 Stocks Beat the S&P 500 by Wide Margins When It Nosedived in 2022, and They Could Do It AgainApr 15, 2026 •By Matt DiLallo5 Best High Dividend Mutual Funds to Buy in 2026Apr 14, 2026 •By Reuben Gregg Brewer4 Dividend Energy Stocks to Buy in AprilAbout the AuthorLee Samaha is a contributing Stock Market Analyst at The Motley Fool covering industrials, electricals, energy, materials, transportation, and infrastructure stocks. Prior to The Motley Fool, Lee was a Civil Engineer and Investment Manager. He holds a Bachelor of Civil and Structural Engineering from Southampton University and a Certificate in Investment Management from Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. Lee first cut his investing teeth on The Motley Fool bulletin boards (commonly referred to as the “Fool Boards,”) and he’s infinitely grateful to all of the investors he learned from in this powerful investing community.TMFSaintGermainX@LeeSamahaStocks MentionedExxonMobilNYSE: XOM$147.60(+0.79%)+$1.16S&P 500 IndexSNPINDEX: ^GSPC$7,109.14(-0.24%)-$16.92Woodside Energy GroupNYSE: WDS$22.61(+0.92%)+$0.21*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.