Quantum Computing Stocks Riding New US Government Demand - simplywall.st

Quantum computing has moved from theory to policy priority, and the latest US executive orders on quantum adoption and quantum-resistant encryption put that shift in sharp focus. With plans for a national lab-based quantum computer by 2028, plus federal grants and funding streams tied to the CHIPS and Science Act, stocks exposed to this news, such as D-Wave Quantum, are firmly on investors’ radar. This article walks through 3 stocks from our Quantum Computing Stocks With US Government Growth Tailwinds screener that appear positively exposed to these policy moves. It is designed to help you decide which stories might deserve a closer look or a wider berth.Overview: IonQ is a US quantum computing company that gives customers access to its systems through major cloud platforms and its own services, and also works on quantum safe communications, detection systems, and specialized hardware. It earns revenue from contracts that cover designing and building quantum hardware, ongoing maintenance and support, and consulting to co develop quantum algorithms for uses such as security and scientific computing.Operations: IonQ currently generates all of its US$187.1m in revenue from Computer Services, with around US$122.4m coming from the United States, US$27.5m from Switzerland, and US$37.2m from other international markets.Market Cap: US$21.8bIonQ sits at the center of Washington’s quantum push, with executive orders on quantum computing and quantum resistant security aligning closely with its hardware, quantum networking and security products such as Clavis XG Multiplex. The company has recently been profitable and is seen by some analysts as a leading pure play quantum stock with exposure to government programs such as SHIELD type initiatives and DARPA projects. However, the shares trade on a very high P/E multiple and carry earnings forecasts that point to declines over the next few years. When combined with high stock based compensation, shareholder dilution and volatile trading, IonQ becomes a high potential but high risk way to gain exposure to US quantum policy tailwinds, and may warrant a closer look beyond the headlines.IonQ’s quantum momentum and rich valuation are pulling in attention, but the real question is how that trade off compares with its execution, dilution and policy exposure in the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs (3 are major!)Overview: D-Wave Quantum provides quantum computers, software tools and cloud services that help businesses and governments tackle complex optimization problems such as scheduling, routing, logistics and portfolio construction using its annealing systems and emerging gate-model platform.Operations: D-Wave Quantum generates all of its US$12.4m in revenue from Internet Software & Services, with customers spread across the United States, Germany, Japan, Canada and other markets.Market Cap: US$9.1bD-Wave Quantum sits in the sweet spot of Washington’s new quantum push, with executive orders fast tracking quantum adoption and quantum-resistant security, plus a planned US$100m Department of Commerce grant in exchange for stock, directly tying the company into CHIPS and Science Act funding. At the same time, D-Wave is still loss-making, has relied on equity funding and has seen shareholder dilution, so the risk side of the ledger is significant. For investors, the appeal is a company already selling quantum systems and cloud access into commercial and government use cases while being singled out in policy, yet still working through profitability and funding questions that are unpacked in more depth in the detailed risk reward breakdown.D-Wave Quantum’s policy spotlight and commercial rollouts are accelerating, but the real story sits in how its losses, dilution and funding runway fit together in the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs (1 is major!)Overview: Rigetti Computing builds and operates superconducting quantum computers and sells access to them through the cloud and on premises, serving governments, research labs and commercial customers that want to experiment with quantum algorithms, hybrid AI workloads and early real world applications.Operations: Rigetti Computing generates US$10.0m of revenue from Internet Software & Services, with sales spread across the United States (US$4.1m), Europe (US$2.7m) and Asia and other regions (US$3.1m).Market Cap: US$7.1bRigetti Computing operates at the intersection of US quantum funding and early commercial demand, with cloud systems like Cepheus 1 and on premises Novera hardware already in the field and a roadmap toward larger, higher fidelity machines. The company has ties into Department of Energy and defense programs, potential access to up to US$100m in CHIPS Act related support and partnerships around AI supercomputers, yet still reports sizeable losses, a high P/B multiple and very volatile trading. For investors, the appeal is a pure play with government backed tailwinds and expectations of revenue growth, but the open question is whether its technology, margins and dilution risks align with those expectations.Rigetti Computing’s government backed quantum ambitions, early hardware in the field and volatile trading may be masking the real inflection point in its story, and the analyst forecasts for Rigetti Computing could reveal the twist investors are missing If Rigetti Computing or any of these companies sound like a great opportunity, register for FREE with Simply Wall St and add your companies to a Watchlist to monitor the share price against the fair value the ideal entry point. 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We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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