Why I'm Bullish On Samsara: A Rare Combination Of Growth, Stickiness And Operating Leverage
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Alex Pickrell428 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(14min)CommentsSummarySamsara (IOT) is a Strong Buy, supported by robust ARR growth, expanding margins, and exceptional product stickiness in a massive, underpenetrated TAM.IOT consistently outperforms conservative guidance, with EPS growth expected to outpace revenue at 40%+ CAGR, making forward valuation highly attractive.Elite LTV/CAC ratio above 8 and multi-product adoption drive durable customer retention, supporting compounding EPS and potential multiple expansion.Key risks include supply chain disruptions and stock-based compensation dilution, but strong cash flows and potential buybacks mitigate dilution concerns. ismagilov/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Samsara (IOT) recently reported a very strong Q3 2026, with highlights including its first positive GAAP EPS quarter in company history, $1.75 billion ARR (29% growth year-over-year), and quarterly revenue of $416 million (29% growth year-over-year). While there has beenThis article was written byAlex Pickrell428 FollowersFollowI am a software engineer by profession and a lifelong student of the markets, combining analytical rigor with a deep fascination for businesses that have the potential to outperform their underlying indices over long time horizons. My investing background began over a decade ago, initially driven by curiosity about how certain companies could compound value far beyond market expectations. Over the years, I have refined my approach to focus on identifying emerging growth stories, under-recognized innovators, and cyclical businesses positioned at favorable points in their economic or industry cycles. I am particularly drawn to companies with scalable models, strong unit economics, and clear catalysts that can unlock superior returns. As an engineer, my training emphasizes structured thinking, pattern recognition, and data-driven decision-making—all of which naturally influence my investment research process. I hold a degree in computer science and have contributed to several large-scale technology initiatives in my professional career. While I write on Seeking Alpha as a side passion rather than as an investment professional, I take pride in producing research that is detailed, transparent, and grounded in fundamentals. My motivation for publishing on Seeking Alpha is twofold: to sharpen my own thinking through public analysis, and to share insights with readers who appreciate deep dives into potential high-growth opportunities and overlooked cyclical setups. I aim to provide clear thesis-driven articles that help investors better understand the companies I cover and the factors that may drive long-term outperformance.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of IOT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Recommended For You