What if ASML Becomes the Next Trillion-Dollar Stock?

By Daniel Foelber – Mar 20, 2026 at 2:15AM ESTKey PointsGrowing AI chip demand benefits semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML.ASML is the most valuable company in Europe but has a ways to go to join the global $1 trillion club. ASML’s valuation is elevated, putting pressure on earnings growth to drive a market cap increase. In his keynote from GTC 2026 on March 16, Nvidia (NVDA 0.87%) CEO Jensen Huang reflected on his prior guidance for $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin purchase orders through 2026. Now he sees at least $1 trillion in artificial intelligence (AI) chip orders through 2027, and said he was certain computing demand would be much higher than that. Note that these are orders that would be realized over a multiyear period. Earlier this month, Broadcom (AVGO +1.43%) CEO Hock Tan forecast $100 billion in fiscal 2027 revenue from AI chips alone. As recent research by The Motley Fool shows, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet's Google, and Meta Platforms are expected to approach $600 billion in combined 2026 capital expenditures, with a lot of that going toward AI. This AI spending spree wouldn't be possible without ASML (ASML +0.86%). Here's why ASML could become the first European company to reach $1 trillion in market capitalization, and if it's a buy now. Image source: Getty Images. ASML's invaluable role in semiconductor manufacturing AI chips are becoming more efficient through innovations from companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, improvements in networking and codesign, and new techniques such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM 0.33%) (TSMC) advanced 2-nanometer (N2) process technology. N2 entered high-volume manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2025. Technologies like Nvidia's Rubin architecture will likely use N2 to improve energy efficiency and power for high-performance computing AI workloads. Pushing the bounds of semiconductor manufacturing is a boon for ASML. Semiconductor foundries like those operated by TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Intel depend on highly advanced semiconductor machinery for the various stages of chip manufacturing, from deposition to lithography, plasma etching, polishing, metal deposition, and process control solutions. ASML specializes in the lithography part of this process, which is often considered the most complicated. ASML has competitors in deep ultraviolet technology, but it has a virtual monopoly over extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems, which are primarily used to produce advanced AI chips. Demand for EUV is soaring, as high-margin EUV machines are making up an increasingly larger percentage of ASML's bookings. Its most advanced High NA EUV machines are still reaching commercial scale, as ASML confirmed revenue from just two of these systems in its latest quarter (fourth quarter 2025) compared to 94 new lithography systems units sold. ASML and its semiconductor equipment peers, such as Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA, benefit from accelerating demand for AI chips. ASML has a long runway for growth as it ramps deliveries of its latest EUV machines. And it also benefits from a recurring revenue stream from servicing existing machines in operation -- with installed base management sales accounting for a quarter of total 2025 sales. ExpandNASDAQ: ASMLASMLToday's Change(0.86%) $11.61Current Price$1366.78Key Data PointsMarket Cap$527BDay's Range$1310.65 - $1372.4652wk Range$578.51 - $1547.22Volume95KAvg Vol1.7MGross Margin52.80%Dividend Yield0.56% An elite stock at a premium valuation ASML is a foundational AI stock to build a portfolio around. Mid-teens double-digit earnings growth or better could pole vault ASML to a $1 trillion market cap in the next three to five years -- considering its market cap is already $540 billion at the time of this writing. The main challenge with ASML isn't its business model, but its valuation. ASML sports a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.3 and a forward P/E of 39.8 compared to a 10-year median P/E of 35.8. Given its invaluable market position in AI, ASML deserves a premium valuation. But it puts pressure on the company to perform, and leaves ASML more vulnerable to a cyclical slowdown in AI spending.Read NextMar 16, 2026 •By Will HealyThe Artificial Intelligence (AI) Inference Market Could Reach $255 Billion by 2030.

This Stock Is Best Positioned to Win.Mar 9, 2026 •By James HiresPrediction: The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Pick-and-Shovel Trade Isn't Over. Here Are 2 Stocks to Buy for 2026Mar 4, 2026 •By Will Healy2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Wall Street Loves but Most Investors Haven't Heard OfFeb 26, 2026 •By Jeremy BowmanWhy ASML Stock Was Down TodayFeb 26, 2026 •By Brett SchaferWhere Will ASML Be in 5 Years?Feb 14, 2026 •By Harsh ChauhanPrediction: ASML's Stock Price Will Hit $2,000 by This TimeAbout the AuthorDaniel Foelber is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst with extensive experience covering the broader stock market and publicly traded companies across energy, industrials, utilities, materials, technology, communications, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and financial stocks. Daniel looks for industry leaders offering compelling growth, value, or dividends to generate passive income. He has also written for energy trade publications and helped build oil and gas training modules. He holds a bachelor’s degree in finance and a certificate in personal financial planning from the University of Houston. He believes the best investors are those who focus on fundamentals, remain steady through volatility, and filter out market noise.TMFpalomino2Stocks MentionedASMLNASDAQ: ASML$1,366.78(+0.86%)+$11.61BroadcomNASDAQ: AVGO$320.45(+1.43%)+$4.52Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingNYSE: TSM$338.46(-0.33%)-$1.11NvidiaNASDAQ: NVDA$178.83(-0.87%)-$1.57Meta PlatformsNASDAQ: META$606.67(-1.46%)-$9.01MicrosoftNASDAQ: MSFT$389.28(-0.64%)-$2.51AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOGL$307.13(-0.18%)-$0.56AmazonNASDAQ: AMZN$208.88(-0.47%)-$0.99IntelNASDAQ: INTC$46.20(+2.59%)+$1.17Applied MaterialsNASDAQ: AMAT$357.10(+2.18%)+$7.63KLANASDAQ: KLAC$1,512.16(+2.01%)+$29.80Lam ResearchNASDAQ: LRCX$233.94(+4.11%)+$9.23AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOG$305.73(-0.19%)-$0.57Samsung ElectronicsFRA: SSUN$2,050.00(-1.44%)-$30.00Samsung ElectronicsOTC: SSNLF$64.82(+55.02%)+$23.00*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.