The Trade Desk: The 2025 Decline Sets Up 2026 Rebound
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Oakoff InvestmentsInvesting GroupFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)CommentsSummaryThe Trade Desk is an independent DSP whose stock has dropped over 72% despite resilient revenue growth and strong fundamentals.I believe TTD's product-led value creation, notably via Kokai, and disciplined operations position it for a recovery through 2026 and beyond.Q3 2025 delivered $739M revenue (+18% YoY), $317M adjusted EBITDA (~43% margin), and customer retention above 95% for the 11th straight quarter.TTD looks undervalued to me, with Q4 guidance of at least $840M revenue and ~$375M adjusted EBITDA. Just 25x on +2% EPS implies $53/share, ~45% upside. I rate it "Buy."Pakorn Supajitsoontorn/iStock via Getty Images My Thesis on The Trade Desk The Trade Desk (TTD) is an independent demand-side platform (DSP) that saw its market cap decline by over 72% over the past year, although its revenueThis article was written byOakoff Investments9.76K FollowersFollowOakoff Investments is a personal portfolio manager and a quantitative research analyst with 5 years helping readers find a reasonable balance between growth and value by sharing proprietary Wall Street information. He leads the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing with features that include: a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis on insights from institutional investors, regular alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals, ticker feedback by request from readers, and community chat. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in TTD over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.