The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing

Opinion Quantum technologiesThe mind-bending complexities of quantum investingThere’s a lot of enthusiasm over what is increasingly seen as the next big frontier in computingJohn ThornhillAdd to myFTGet instant alerts for this topicManage your delivery channels hereRemove from myFTThe physicist Richard Feynman delivers a lecture at Cern in Geneva in 1965. Recent advances in quantum research in hardware and software have sparked investor interest © AlamyThe mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on x (opens in a new window)The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on facebook (opens in a new window)The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on linkedin (opens in a new window)The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on x (opens in a new window)The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on facebook (opens in a new window)The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on linkedin (opens in a new window)The mind-bending complexities of quantum investing on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save John ThornhillPublishedDecember 11 2025Jump to comments sectionPrint this pageUnlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The brilliant physicist Richard Feynman once famously remarked that “nobody understands quantum mechanics” given the counter-intuitive absurdity of nature. To which the pragmatic response of some other researchers has been to “shut up and calculate”. Even lesser minds than Feynman’s can sometimes prove in practice what remains mystifying in theory.A similar reductionist view appears to have taken hold among investors trying to make money out of the current quantum boom. It is all too easy to get lost in the mind-bending complexities of the different modalities being explored to build a quantum computer. Should investors bet on superconducting circuits, trapped ions, topological qubits or photonics? Is it better to invest in quantum hardware or software? Or other potential applications, such as sensing and communications?But many just look at the numbers on a chart, spread their bets and keep investing. There have certainly been a lot of numbers moving up and to the right this year as the valuations of publicly listed quantum companies, including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and Quantum Computing, have surged, albeit followed by a sharp pullback over the past few weeks. Giant tech companies, including Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM and Honeywell, are now investing heavily in the sector, which they increasingly see as the next big frontier in computing. Private market investors have been equally enthusiastic, backing start-ups such as PsiQuantum, Quantinuum and IQM Quantum Computers, which have all held big funding rounds this year. Venture capital investors had already sunk $1.7bn into 88 start-ups by mid-June, putting the industry on track for a record year, according to PitchBook. Specialist quantum investment funds have been launched, bringing more liquidity to the sector. And cash-rich quantum companies are buying up rivals to acquire expertise and talent, underpinning start-up valuations. In June, for example, IonQ agreed to buy Oxford Ionics for $1.1bn. This investor interest has been triggered by recent advances in quantum research in both hardware and software, which is enabling rudimentary quantum computers to be deployed in the real world. Operating in a different way from classical computers, they can increasingly be used to tackle an array of material science, chemistry, optimisation, communication, cryptographic and navigation challenges. “Quantum has got to a point where people can start debating its timelines. It’s not just a science project,” says Callum Stewart, an investor at Bullhound Capital.This bull market appears to be partly a derivative of the artificial intelligence boom. The two sectors are becoming increasingly entangled as advances in one field accelerate progress in the other. One of the first applications for quantum computers will be generating data and “creating chemistry models” for AI companies, says Paul Terry, chief executive of the Canadian start-up Photonic, which is aiming to deliver robust quantum computing services via a Microsoft data centre in 2027.The fact that some companies are already making money out of such services is also boosting investor confidence, even if fault-tolerant quantum computers needed for the most valuable functions remain years away. For instance, IBM claimed this year that it had made a cumulative revenue of about $1bn from selling quantum services since 2017. The financial services sector has been experimenting with quantum: HSBC is one of several banks exploring how it can be used for fraud detection, financial simulations and algorithmic trading. As has been known since 1994 when the mathematician Peter Shor wrote an algorithm for a yet-to-be-invented quantum computer that could crack commonly used RSA encryption systems, quantum developments could pose a significant threat to the security of everyone online. A poll of more than 30 leading experts, conducted by the Global Risk Institute last year, estimated that there was a likelihood of between 19 per cent to 34 per cent of developing such a computer within 10 years. National security agencies have long had an intense interest in the sector and governments have been supporting post-quantum cryptographic solutions.Even if the timelines remain uncertain, there seems little doubt that vast fortunes will one day be made out of quantum. Some in the industry argue that it will be even more consequential than AI. But, as ever in frothy markets, it may be easier to make money out of figuring out who are the greater investment fools than guessing who are the greatest scientific geniuses.john.thornhill@ft.comReuse this content (opens in new window) CommentsJump to comments sectionPromoted Content Follow the topics in this article John Thornhill Add to myFT Technology sector Add to myFT Quantum technologies Add to myFT Comments