A CPI Too Low To Be True

Agar Capital2.6K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)Comment(1)SummaryToday’s inflation data appears benign, but underlying risks remain unaddressed and could resurface unexpectedly.Markets are complacent, focusing on short-term CPI relief while ignoring persistent inflation above the Fed’s target and high fiscal deficits.Tariffs and accommodative U.S. fiscal and monetary policy are accumulating inflationary pressures, not resolving them.A hard landing risk persists if inflation returns and the Fed is forced to hike rates from already elevated levels. Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images The market isn't celebrating The November CPI figure was just released, and objectively, it's much lower than expected. Truth be told, I wasn't expecting such a low figure (personally, I still can't believe it).This article was written byAgar Capital2.6K FollowersFollowI’m a Portfolio manager (flexible equity funds and private clients), fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I combine top-down macro, bottom-up stock selection and real-time positioning (Bloomberg, models, data).I focus on earnings, tech disruption, policy shifts and capital flows — to identify mispriced opportunities before the market.On Seeking Alpha I share high-conviction ideas, contrarian views and deep breakdowns of both growth and value names.For more insights: follow me on X @AgarCapitalAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPX, NDX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.