BJ's Restaurants: Baked In The Gains, But Is There Dessert Left? (Rating Downgrade)
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Pedro Goulart771 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryBJ's Restaurants (BJRI) has outperformed peers in traffic and same-store sales, especially in challenging California markets. BJRI's margin improvements stem from lower COGS, though labor costs remain elevated; Q3 cash flow was softer due to higher renovation Capex. Share buybacks accelerated, with $62.4M YTD and an FY25 target raised to $80M; further $75M authorized for FY26. With shares near my $41 target and upside dependent on unforeseen catalysts, BJRI is now a 'Hold'—best entry likely behind us. nathan4847/iStock via Getty Images After two pieces in the second half of the year, it's fair to say the 'Pizookie Dip' didn't take long to show its face. And, well, looks like we didn't miss our chance to take a bite.This article was written byPedro Goulart771 FollowersFollowI’m an equity analyst and founder of Goulart’s Restaurant Stocks, a research firm focused on the U.S. restaurant industry — from quick-service and fast casual to fine dining and niche concepts. I lead all thematic research and valuation efforts, applying advanced financial modeling, sector-specific KPIs, and strategic insights to uncover hidden value across public equities. In addition to restaurants, I cover consumer discretionary, food & beverage, casinos & gaming, and IPOs, with a particular focus on micro and small caps that are often overlooked by mainstream analysts. My research has been featured on Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, Mises Institute, Investing.com and other plataforms. My background combines hands-on experience in finance and business management with academic foundations. I hold an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, a Bachelor’s in Business Administration. I’ve also pursued specialized training in valuation, financial modeling, and restaurant operations (I had a brief experience as an undergraduate as a franchise partner for a regional ice cream shop).Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.