Amazon's AI Capex Problem Is Its Superpower
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Oakoff InvestmentsInvesting GroupFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)CommentsSummaryAmazon has gone essentially nowhere YoY as investors fixate on a $125B AI CAPEX "problem," despite re‑accelerating AWS, strong earnings beats, and robust free cash flow.AWS re-accelerated to 20.2% YoY growth in Q3, with $200 billion backlog and EBIT margins above 30%, supporting sustainable long-term earnings power.With Trainium/Graviton and custom rack‑scale systems, AWS is evolving into a vertically integrated AI infrastructure supplier, owning compute, memory, and networking economics rather than renting merchant silicon.At ~29× 2026 earnings, I believe the consensus underestimates AWS’s durable 20%+ growth and AI infra optionality. My model supports ~43% upside in AMZN by end‑2026, so I stay bullish.hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Keeping a Bullish Eye On Amazon I haven't covered Amazon (AMZN) stock since August 2025, and for the past 4 months, the stock has gone up by over 6%. It might look solid at firstThis article was written byOakoff Investments9.73K FollowersFollowOakoff Investments is a personal portfolio manager and a quantitative research analyst with 5 years helping readers find a reasonable balance between growth and value by sharing proprietary Wall Street information. He leads the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing with features that include: a fundamentals-based portfolio, weekly analysis on insights from institutional investors, regular alerts for short-term trade ideas based on technical signals, ticker feedback by request from readers, and community chat. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Recommended For You