Warning of Quantum Computing Stock Bubble Burst: Three Hot Stocks Could Crash in 2026 - NAI500

Although quantum computing is hailed as a cutting-edge technology with the potential to revolutionize financial risk analysis, drug discovery, and even artificial intelligence, its commercial applications will likely take at least another decade to mature. Nowadays, pure-play quantum computing companies such as Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and IonQ (IONQ) are showing clear signs of bubble-like characteristics in their stock prices, with analysts warning that their valuations could face sharp corrections in 2026. Since January 2023, the quantum computing sector has emerged as the second most popular investment theme after artificial intelligence, with some stocks delivering staggering gains: Rigetti Computing has surged by 3,210%, D-Wave Quantum by 1,970%, and IonQ by 1,290%. However, these gains lack corresponding support from revenue or profit growth. The quantum computing market remains extremely small, with Grand View Research projecting that the global market will reach only $4.2 billion by 2030. In comparison, the artificial intelligence market is expected to reach $1.8 trillion during the same period, making it 425 times larger than the quantum computing market. The core unit of quantum computers—the qubit—is highly susceptible to external interference, and no company has yet been able to manufacture large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing systems. Rigetti specializes in superconducting quantum computing, with its most advanced system containing only about 100 qubits, and plans to launch a 1,000-qubit system by the end of 2027. D-Wave focuses on quantum annealing technology, and while its most advanced system has approximately 5,000 qubits, its design is limited to optimization problems. IonQ specializes in trapped-ion quantum computing, with its most advanced system featuring around 100 qubits, and aims to build a 20,000-qubit system by 2028. Analysis from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, indicates that practical applications of quantum computing in drug discovery and financial risk analysis may not emerge until around 2040. While Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai believes practical systems could appear within a decade, the general consensus suggests that the technology remains far from widespread adoption. None of these three companies have achieved profitability, and their price-to-sales (P/S) ratios have soared to alarming levels: Rigetti’s P/S ratio is as high as 928, with revenue projected to grow at an annual rate of 124% through 2027. D-Wave’s P/S ratio stands at 362, with expected revenue growth of 69% annually. IonQ’s P/S ratio is 150, with projected revenue growth of 84% per year. For context, the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500 currently trade at an average P/S ratio of approximately 55. To align with this level, Rigetti would need to fall by 94%, D-Wave by 84%, and IonQ by 63%. Some have compared investing in these companies to buying Nvidia in 2015, but Nvidia’s P/S ratio was only 2.8 at the time, making it about 100 times cheaper than these quantum computing stocks. Overall, while quantum computing holds immense long-term promise, excessive market speculation has led to valuations that are severely disconnected from reality. After three years of explosive gains, 2026 could mark a turning point for valuation corrections. Investors must remain vigilant about the risks posed by the mismatch between technological development cycles and capital market expectations, approaching this “future tech” investment theme with rationality. AI Financial Reports Technology U.S. stocks Financial Market Data copyright © 2020 QuoteMedia. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated (view delay times for all exchanges). RT=Real-Time, EOD=End of Day, PD=Previous Day. Market Data powered by QuoteMedia. Terms of Use.