Rigetti Computing Shares Drop 9% This Week: Valuation Concerns Trigger Selling - 24/7 Wall St.

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) dropped 9.15% this week, closing at $16.09 on Friday. The quantum computing pioneer is navigating three distinct storylines that explain both the volatility and the skepticism seen in the company’s share price recently.nextstayCCSettingsOffArabicChineseEnglishFrenchGermanHindiPortugueseSpanishFont ColorwhiteFont Opacity100%Font Size100%Font FamilyArialText ShadownoneBackground ColorblackBackground Opacity50%Window ColorblackWindow Opacity0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%ArialGeorgiaGaramondCourier NewTahomaTimes New RomanTrebuchet MSVerdanaNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop ShadowWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0%WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan100%75%50%25%0% Performance: A Brutal Start to 2026 Error loading chart data: Turnstile challenge failed: 600010 Rigetti is down 27.36% year-to-date and 37.44% over the past month. The stock peaked at $58.15 in mid-October but has since given back most of those gains. For context, the one-year return still sits at 31.35%, but momentum has clearly reversed. The company trades at a 660x price-to-sales ratio with $7.49 million in trailing twelve-month revenue and a $4.95 billion market cap. It’s well known that quantum computing is largely a pre-revenue space. Even under fairly optimistic modeling from Wall Street, Riggetti will remain profitless into 2029 and see revenue at $197 million. That would still leave the company trading for more than 25X its 2029 sales today. However, these numbers show how much the quantum space is at the whims of investor sentiment. With few business results across the next five years, quantum stocks trade more on optimism of what the space could be in the next 5 to 10 years. That sentiment can swing wildly. Storyline 1: TD Cowen Cuts the Hype On February 12, TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar downgraded Rigetti to Hold, citing increased costs in the quantum computing field and heightened competition that make the current valuation overly optimistic. The analyst specifically flagged 2027 revenue estimates as unrealistic. This matters because Wall Street had been treating quantum stocks like lottery tickets. Sankar’s note was a reality check: “The quantum industry faces a challenging and expensive path to success.” The consensus price target sits at $38.85, implying upside, but that downgrade shifted sentiment fast.

Across Wall Street, estimates place 2027 sales at $45.39 million. We’ll see if there are any downward revisions to that number in the coming weeks after Sankar’s downgrade. Storyline 2: Roadmap Delays Signal Execution Risk Rigetti postponed the launch of its Cepheus-1-108Q quantum computer in early February, a development that raised questions about technical execution. The company reported $1.90 million in Q3 revenue, missing estimates of $2.21 million, and posted a $200.97 million net loss (losses excluding exceptional items came in at -$10.65 million). Revenue also declined 18.1% year-over-year. CEO Subodh Kulkarni emphasized progress, saying “we remain on track to deliver our 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system with an anticipated 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.” But the roadmap delay undercuts that confidence. One analysis noted “Rigetti’s ability to convert technical milestones into commercial adoption and stronger unit economics in 2026 to 2027 will be crucial for rebuilding investor confidence.” Storyline 3: IonQ Widens the Competitive Gap Error loading chart data: Turnstile challenge failed: 600010 IonQ (NYSE:IONQ | IONQ Price Prediction) announced a significant acquisition to bring quantum hardware manufacturing in-house, putting pressure on Rigetti’s market position. IonQ reported $39.87 million in Q3 revenue, 20 times Rigetti’s quarterly figure, and holds $3.5 billion in pro-forma cash after a $2 billion equity offering. IonQ also achieved 99.99% two-qubit gate performance, a technical milestone. Prediction markets reflect this gap: the probability of the US government taking an equity stake in Rigetti by year-end 2026 sits at just 8.05%, compared to 50% for IonQ and 27% for D-Wave. Rigetti still has $558.9 million in cash and government contracts like the $5.8 million AFRL award, but the competitive landscape is tightening. Sentiment continued shifting in the wrong direction, but it’s clear what Rigetti needs to do to change its narrative: hit on technical milestones and gain commercial adoption across the next 18 months. If You’ve Been Thinking About Retirement, Pay Attention (sponsor) Retirement planning doesn’t have to feel overwhelming. The key is finding expert guidance, and SmartAsset’s simple quiz makes it easier than ever for you to connect with a vetted financial advisor. Here’s how: Answer a Few Simple Questions. Get Matched with Vetted Advisors Choose Your Fit Why wait? Start building the retirement you’ve always dreamed of.