The Race Toward Quantum-First - AFCEA International

As quantum capabilities swiftly make their way to center stage, a global paradigm shift is showcasing the urgency of digital and technological sovereignty. With geopolitical tensions on the rise, the stakes are as high as the value of self-reliant innovation.The complicated relationship between the United States and its European allies has made room for opportunity, Carlos Moreira told SIGNAL Media in an interview. With decades of entrepreneurial and cybersecurity experience, Moreira is the CEO of WISeKey, a Switzerland-based cybersecurity company.SEALSQ, a subsidiary of WISeKey, is a semiconductor company specializing in post-quantum cryptography, or PQC.“This technology is becoming very much geopolitical,” he said of quantum capabilities. “Countries want to be sovereign in what concerns quantum, so it will not be a situation where one company will dominate the entire world.”Sovereignty in the context of quantum technology has been a growing topic of discussion, with recent news highlighting a notable trend.In November, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change released a paper titled “A New National Purpose: A UK Quantum Strategy for Sovereignty and Scale.” The report highlights the significance of a growing quantum market and the risks of falling behind the quantum ecosystems of other nations. “These structural deficiencies are leading to U.K.-based quantum companies looking to the door,” the paper reads, referencing the acquisition of Oxford Ionics by IonQ, a U.S.-based quantum computing giant.At a December Quantum States General event in Rome, Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto spoke on the National Quantum Polo, an initiative aimed at enhancing Italian quantum capabilities. “The model draws on [the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency] rapid prototyping framework,” a Decode39 report states, noting quantum computing, sensing, simulation and communication as top priorities.By 2030, the European Union plans to become a global leader in quantum technology, with a quantum sector worth 155 billion Euros by 2040. Notably, a quantum act proposal is expected to be released this year.Just in January, the United States announced that 2026 will be the year of quantum security, Moreira stated. “There’s new regulation now in the U.S. with the [Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0] that says that U.S. agencies that are dealing with critical infrastructure need to be PQC-enabled by the year 2027, so this is tomorrow,” he stressed. “By the year 2030, everything which is legacy will not be tolerated anymore, so there’s going to be a massive amount of PQC demand and obviously also on quantum security.”For Moreira, whose company recently announced a memorandum of understanding for exclusive negotiations with French-based quantum computing startup Quobly SAS, preparedness is key.“We are perfectly positioned now with the two listed companies on the NASDAQ, and a third one will be integrated, which is Quobly, to solve that specific problem” he said. Launched in November 2022, Quobly is “pioneering the development of silicon-based quantum computers,” a press release states. “This transaction is anchored within SEALSQ’s Quantum strategy and supported in part by its dedicated Quantum Fund designed to accelerate the emergence of sovereign, secure and industrial-scale quantum technologies across Europe.”Together with other startups, Quobly is developing qubits on chip semiconductors and is set to create a road map of more than 10 million qubits by 2030, Moreira said. While the current number of qubits developed is not enough to break the Rivest-Shamir-Adleman algorithm, widely referred to as RSA, the gradual development is an improvement for PQC chips.The RSA is a 50-year-old algorithm invented at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is one of the most predominantly used algorithms alongside Triple Data Encryption Standard (3DES) and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC).“Everything that you have, your credit card, your car key, your financial transactions, your e-banking, your health records, your government transactions, your tax payments, all that is based on RSA encryption,” Moreira said. Thus far, large legacy cybersecurity companies have successfully protected critical infrastructure from various types of threats through encryption and anticipatory operations.“Quantum is a totally different paradigm shift. It’s a new computational technology arriving that one quantum computer replaces hundreds of thousands of supercomputers,” Moreira continued.A quantum computer, however, does not need large data centers powered by large amounts of electricity. The idea contradicts what modern investment has prioritized, Moreira explained. “You can run a quantum computer in a much smaller environment with a very small amount of electricity ... so all that investment now is going to be compromisable by the quantum computer [and] that’s going to change the dynamic of investments.”On the other hand, Moreira said, if a quantum computer enters the market today, it will pose the threat of decrypting all encrypted data.Hackers, for example, have long been harvesting encrypted data with the objective of one day using a quantum computer to decrypt all information. “This is a very serious danger, because there will be a moment the world will have no secrets,” Moreira said.Although the possibility of this achievement sounded much too futuristic, quantum innovation has evolved at a rapid speed and scale.In the last 18 months, industry has proven the development of qubits to be possible, Moreira explained. “There’s a road map for a thousand qubits this year, so that means that by the time you reach 10 million qubits, you can break RSA, so it’s a race to break RSA.”The powerful technology signifies a change in computational infrastructure and a power shift for companies relying on traditional legacy cybersecurity systems.The evolution of this innovation across other larger companies showcases the significance of technological sovereignty, Moreira explained, a concept he witnessed during a recent visit to India for a joint venture with Kaynes SemiCon.“India is booming on quantum technology, and they want to also verticalize the sovereign technology, so they don’t depend on anybody else,” he explained.According to Moreira, Kaynes is one of the leading semiconductor companies, without the addition of PQC. “What we are doing is building a factory so they can upgrade their current semiconductors through PQC technology and deploy to India,” he said.The partnership highlights just a step in India’s National Quantum Mission, which was launched in 2023 to “seed, nurture and scale up scientific and industrial [research and development] and create a vibrant and innovative ecosystem in the quantum technology,” according to the nation’s Ministry of Science and Technology.The mission includes the creation of four Thematic Hubs for quantum innovation: quantum computing; quantum communication; quantum sensing and metrology; and quantum materials and devices.This year’s World Economic Forum discussions notably highlighted the shift in globalization as a path to sovereignty.“Globalization has failed the West and the United States of America. It’s a failed policy,” U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said during a panel discussion titled Prosperity: Sovereign Yet Connected?“The fact is, it has left America behind, it has left the American workers behind, and what we are here to say is that America-first is a different model, one that we encourage other countries to consider, which is that our workers come first,” Lutnick stated.The official went on to speak on sovereignty. “You shouldn’t offshore your medicine. You shouldn’t offshore your semiconductors. You shouldn’t offshore your entire industrial base and have it be hollowed out beneath you. You should not be dependent for that which is fundamental to your sovereignty on any other nation,” he said.“America-first is the job of our government to take care of our workers to make sure their lives are better for it. Don’t be America-alone, but be America-first, and I would suggest that policy is something for other countries to deeply consider to take care of their own, and then we will work wonderful relationships between us.”Growing tension among world leaders is raising concerns across sectors, Moreira told SIGNAL Media. “[It] makes Europe think that maybe they have to take care of their own destiny,” in terms of security concerns, he said. While larger tech giants controlled much of the playing field, the game is changing.“People want to develop their own technology, so you will see defense, government, critical infrastructure, they want to control their own keys. They want to control their own crypto. They want to control their own chips. They want to control their own quantum. They want to control their own electricity. They want to be sustainable and independent ... that’s the new motto.”