Prediction: These 2 Stocks Will Be the Biggest Winners From $500 Billion AI Spending in 2026

By Justin Pope – Jan 25, 2026 at 8:45AM ESTKey PointsInvestments into AI and data centers continue to rise.Nvidia remains the dominant AI chip company, with its new Rubin architecture right around the corner.TSMC has been busy building AI chips and is gearing up for further growth ahead.CEO says this is worth 18 Nvidias. Will this make the world's first trillionaire? ›NASDAQ: NVDANvidiaMarket Cap$4.6TToday's Changeangle-down(1.60%) $2.95Current Price$187.79Price as of January 23, 2026 at 3:58 PM ETDon't overthink the AI boom. This year's AI winners are sitting in plain sight.It's been a little over three years since artificial intelligence (AI) became the hottest topic on Wall Street. Nothing lasts forever, but it's hard to envision the AI boom ending this year. At least, not while billions of dollars continue to flow into data centers, chips, and other AI infrastructure. So, how is the AI space shaping up for 2026? Consensus estimates from Goldman Sachs indicate that AI companies could spend more than $500 billion on capital expenditures this year. That would be an increase of more than $100 billion from 2025. In other words, the AI train is chugging along faster than ever. Which stocks will benefit the most from all this AI spending? Recent developments point to some familiar faces. Here is why I predict that Nvidia (NVDA +1.60%) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +2.21%) will be this year's big AI winners. Image source: Nvidia. The top AI GPU company is launching a new chip Nvidia has grown by leaps and bounds over the past several years. Its GPU chips are the hardware of choice for AI hyperscalers, utilizing Nvidia's CUDA programming to build massive data centers where thousands of GPU chips work together as clusters to train and operate AI models. The company's Hopper GPU architecture helped it capture the AI data center market early on. Since then, Nvidia's customers have mostly stuck with its GPUs, which have a reported market share of 85% to 90%. It's why Nvidia's revenue surged by 1,000% over the past five years, and the stock has performed similarly. ExpandNASDAQ: NVDANvidiaToday's Change(1.60%) $2.95Current Price$187.79Key Data PointsMarket Cap$4.6TDay's Range$186.83 - $189.6052wk Range$86.62 - $212.19Volume4.7MAvg Vol187MGross Margin70.05%Dividend Yield0.02% So, why is Nvidia still a big winner this year? AI companies have already laid extensive groundwork, building primarily on Nvidia's hardware. It's hard to see that changing dramatically while the investment boom still has this much momentum. Nvidia's next-generation architecture, Rubin, recently entered full production, and the company has a $500 billion backlog extending through 2026. That should set the stage for continued growth at Nvidia. The stock's current price-to-earnings ratio of 45 still offers excellent value, especially given analyst estimates for 36% annualized earnings growth over the long term. Unless the AI boom falls off overnight, Nvidia is likely to continue its winning ways this year. The leading foundry continues to capture AI growth Investors can follow the AI chip breadcrumbs to this next winner. Nvidia and most other chip companies don't actually manufacture anything. Instead, they outsource production to foundries.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, also known as TSMC, is the world's leading foundry, with an estimated market share of 72%. Its next-closest competitor controls just 7% of the market. TSMC's dominance stems from some serious competitive advantages. It has advanced manufacturing techniques and higher factory capacity, making it difficult for other foundries to compete with TSMC, especially in high-end chips used in AI data centers. TSMC's market share has gradually increased over the past few years as the AI chip market has exploded. ExpandNYSE: TSMTaiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingToday's Change(2.21%) $7.24Current Price$334.61Key Data PointsMarket Cap$1.7TDay's Range$331.46 - $337.1252wk Range$134.25 - $351.33Volume521KAvg Vol13MGross Margin59.02%Dividend Yield0.92% The company recently posted a stellar earnings report and is increasing capital expenditures to $52 billion-$56 billion in 2026, up from $41 billion in 2025. It's a strong signal that TSMC sees more growth on the horizon, as global AI chip demand primarily funnels through its factories. Analysts now see the company growing earnings by nearly 30% annually over the next three to five years. TSMC was a red-hot stock last year, surging more than 53%. However, it seems that investors still aren't appreciating TSMC's growth enough. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30, which, frankly, is a compelling valuation for a dominant business with such bright growth prospects. If investors continue to appreciate TSMC's strong performance, the stock seems likely to continue running strongly throughout 2026.Read NextJan 25, 2026 •By John BallardThe AI Computing Stock That Big Money Managers Are Quietly BuyingJan 25, 2026 •By Trevor JennewineOpenAI Stock vs. Anthropic Stock: Which Nvidia-Backed AI Start-up Would Be the Best IPO Stock to Buy in 2026?Jan 24, 2026 •By Adam SpataccoThe 5 Most Popular Stocks on Robinhood to Begin 2026Jan 24, 2026 •By Keithen DruryMy Top 3 Chip Stocks for 2025 Crushed the Market. Here's Why They Can Repeat Again in 2026.Jan 24, 2026 •By Manali Pradhan, CFA2 Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy in Early 2026Jan 24, 2026 •By Stefon WaltersIf You'd Invested $1,000 in Nvidia 5 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have TodayAbout the AuthorJustin Pope is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering information technology, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and industrials. Prior to The Motley Fool, Justin was a business manager for an industrial company.TMFbeardedFiStocks MentionedNvidiaNASDAQ: NVDA$187.79 (+0.02%) $+2.95Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingNYSE: TSM$334.61 (+0.02%) $+7.24*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.