IBM’s Krishna Predicts First Real-World Quantum Advantage in 2026

Insider Brief Arvind Krishna said IBM expects early examples of quantum advantage this year while remaining on track to deliver a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Recent demonstrations using IBM hardware simulated a 300-atom system for pharmaceutical research and modeled magnetic materials, indicating growing reliability of quantum systems for scientific discovery. IBM also released a blueprint for quantum-centric supercomputing that integrates quantum and classical systems to scale practical applications across industries. Image: Photo by Meet Jayesh Choudhari on Pexels IBM’s CEO expects early signs of quantum advantage to emerge this year, signaling growing confidence that quantum systems are beginning to outperform classical computers in select tasks. Speaking during IBM’s first quarter 2026 earnings call, Arvind Krishna, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, IBM, pointed to a series of recent technical milestones and partnerships as evidence that the company’s long-term quantum strategy is starting to produce measurable results. He said IBM remains on track to deliver what it calls a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, a system designed to correct errors and run complex calculations reliably. “We strongly believe that our partners will achieve the first examples of quantum advantage this year, leveraging IBM hardware,” Krishna said. That statement represents one of the clearest timelines yet from a major technology company suggesting that quantum advantage — the point at which a quantum computer can solve a problem beyond the practical reach of classical machines — could arrive in real-world applications, not just controlled experiments. If Krishna’s prediction bears out, it’s also a sign that IBM is on track — if not a little early — on its roadmap toward fault-tolerant quantum computing Early Hints From Scientific Work Krishna cited recent research collaborations as early indicators of that progress. In one case, researchers used IBM quantum hardware alongside the Cleveland Clinic to simulate a molecular system containing 300 atoms. Such simulations are central to drug discovery, where understanding how molecules behave can help identify new treatments. “We continue to make progress in quantum and remain on track to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029,” Krishna said. He added that the experiment demonstrated quantum computers can act as “reliable tools for pharmaceutical discovery,” a claim that could position quantum systems as complementary tools to traditional high-performance computing in the life sciences. In a separate effort, another research team used IBM’s systems to simulate magnetic materials with high accuracy. Magnetism plays a key role in energy systems, including next-generation batteries and electrical infrastructure. Krishna described these results as further evidence that quantum machines are beginning to handle problems tied to physical systems, an area where classical simulations often become computationally expensive. “These are significant demonstrations to date that quantum computers can serve as reliable tools for scientific discovery,” Krishna said. Beyond individual experiments, IBM is also outlining how quantum systems will integrate into broader computing environments. Krishna said the company recently released a new blueprint for what it calls “quantum-centric supercomputing.” The approach combines quantum processors with classical computers — the systems used in today’s data centers — allowing each to handle the parts of a problem they are best suited to solve. Classical systems manage data preparation and error correction, while quantum processors handle specific calculations that benefit from quantum mechanics. Krishna said this hybrid model is essential for scaling quantum computing from isolated demonstrations to practical use in industry. Rather than replacing classical computers, quantum systems are expected to augment them, particularly in fields such as chemistry, materials science and optimization. Path to Fault Tolerance A central challenge for quantum computing remains error correction. Quantum bits, or qubits, are highly sensitive to noise, meaning calculations can quickly become unreliable without safeguards. A fault-tolerant system uses additional qubits and error-correction techniques to ensure results remain accurate over longer computations. Krishna reiterated that IBM’s roadmap targets 2029 for delivering such a system at scale. Achieving that milestone would mark a transition from experimental devices to machines capable of sustained, commercially relevant workloads. Until then, the company is focusing on incremental progress, including improving hardware performance, expanding partnerships and demonstrating use cases that show clear advantages over classical methods. Overall, IBM reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of 2026, with revenue of $15.92 billion surpassing the anticipated $15.61 billion. The company announced an EPS of $1.91 against a forecast of $1.81.

Matt Swayne LinkedIn With a several-decades long background in journalism and communications, Matt Swayne has worked as a science communicator for an R1 university for more than 12 years, specializing in translating high tech and deep tech for the general audience. He has served as a writer, editor and analyst at The Quantum Insider since its inception. In addition to his service as a science communicator, Matt also develops courses to improve the media and communications skills of scientists and has taught courses. matt@thequantuminsider.com Share this article: