GQI’s Top Predictions for Quantum Technology in 2026

2025 has been a year of truly significant progress in the quantum technology world, with continued advancements in hardware, software, and ecosystems bringing us closer to the goal of transformative quantum applications in computing, communications and sensing. In congratulating the world’s quantum pioneers on their work, the GQI team would like to go beyond our usual analysis and offers these predictions for what the quantum field may see in 2026. Government Initiatives and Market Dynamics DARPA and EU Quantum Programs: Towards the end of 2026, DARPA will announce which companies participating in Stage B of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) will be invited to Stage C, we expect the funnel to remain broad. Similarly, the European Union will launch its Quantum Grand Challenge in 2026, announcing participants for Phase 1 and later selecting five or six participants for Phase 2. This might, in fact, introduce a “quantum curtain” of tacitly approved quantum vendors on each side – and an opportunity for EU vendors to remain relevant in their own large scale market. In an attempt to retain independence from both these groupings, the UK government will re-double its own support for investment in quantum. Market Consolidation: Increased consolidation is anticipated in the quantum computing and networks hardware market. This will be driven by a need for increased capital that the private markets will struggle to fulfill due to the uncertainty of quantum timelines, as well as by the opportunity to solve some fragmentation that creates inefficiencies both in the supply chain and in public funding support. Well capitalized hardware providers will pivot or generalize their technology to accelerate their roadmaps. Examples already seen include IonQ’s acquisition of Oxford Ionics for their microwave-controlled ion traps, and Google AI’s potential acquisition of Atlantic Quantum for access to fluxonium-based superconducting qubits. We expect to see a peer group of ‘quantum primes’ emerge as a result. Financing and Investment: Raising new private funds will become more challenging. The promise of near-term markets in quantum will prove to be insufficient to support valuations and secure lead investors. Differentiators at the early stage are becoming less defensible than a few years ago. This will see the beginning of a second wave of quantum, with materially different technology, focus or markets. Companies with cash reserves will find opportunities to build their portfolio of intellectual property (IP) and talent. AI Market Impact: If the long-anticipated AI market correction occurs, it will have a knock-on effect on wider tech valuations, including quantum. Hardware and Algorithm Advancements Physical vs Logical: Quantum processors boasting ‘logical qubits’ grab many headlines. Those hoping for application impacts in 2026 will be disappointed as these early systems will struggle to offer enough logical qubits at meaningful logical error rates. However, the likely dramatic increase in physical qubits with three and four-nines physical fidelity will breathe new life into the kiloquop market and will enable more meaningful late-NISQ empirical research. On-Premise Adoption: The proportion of quantum processors shipped for on-premise usage will continue to rise. This shift is motivated by end users wanting to maintain data security, the desire to improve job turnaround time by avoiding public job queues, government data locality regulations, university and regional ecosystems that want to jumpstart their role in the quantum economy, and vendors promoting it for more immediate revenue. The tension between this and another requirement will be increasingly evident: the advantage of co-locating quantum machines within High-Performance Computing (HPC) data centers. Access to high-performance, scalable GPU and CPU resources is likely a requirement for most commercially relevant quantum algorithms in the short, medium and long term. Co-location helps minimize data latencies and allow for improved integration of the quantum system into the overall IT infrastructure, as well as useful workforce development opportunities.

Error Correction Research: Research into error correction will intensify in 2026 and become a mainstream required skill for scientists of the field. The industry expects progress in particular on improved practical schemes for fault tolerant operations on top of novel codes and new multi-layer code schemes. along with necessary supporting hardware like error decoders and low-latency classical/quantum communication links. Multi-layer schemes, such as bosonic or dual-rail qubits, which provide some error protection in the base hardware, will be key areas to watch. Mid-Stack Development: Continued development and new offerings of mid-stack hardware and software will aim to improve processor performance. Couplers, transducers and interconnects will emerge as the next strategic piece of the quantum puzzle. Applications and Metrics Advances in Applications: The first applications utilizing gate-based processors will strengthen their production-grade value in 2026. These (modest) applications will heavily benefit from advances in error suppression and mitigation, and will utilize innovative algorithms. Examples of algorithms include a heuristics approach such as QAOA as a warm-start for conventional optimization, Google AI’s Quantum Echo’s algorithm for interpreting NMR spectra, and Sample-based Quantum Diagonalization (SQD) for molecular chemistry. Focus on Speed Metrics: As the market gets ready for the transition to fault tolerance it will pay much more attention to error correction cycle time. Gate times have always been a focus, but now many will realize that measurement time threatens to be the bottleneck in many roadmaps. Once multiple processors can solve certain problems, the focus will shift to how fast the solution was achieved, and users may discover orders of magnitude differences in speed. GQI sees logical cycle time emerging as one key metric. Quantum and AI Integration: AI and Quantum technologies will increasingly be used together, covering both Quantum for AI and AI for Quantum. Look for more AI assistance to be incorporated into Quantum SDKs (Software Development Kits) to simplify quantum program development for end users. Emerging Technologies and Sensors New Materials and Techniques: There will be more research into new materials and processing techniques.Integrated Photonics: Integrated photonics has a bright future for many atom, ion and photon-based designs. In 2026 we expect to see new integrated photonic solutions deployed, new pilot lines developed and new material stacks announced. Spin Qubits: Important differences in materials choice will become apparent and emerge (including donors vs. Si MOS vs. FD-SOI vs. Si/SiGe vs. Ge/SiGe), this sector is continuing to catch-up against more mature technologies like superconducting and ion trap-based qubits. Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC): Enterprises will spend more money and effort on PQC implementation as they realize Q-day (the day a fault-tolerant quantum computer can break current encryption) is rapidly approaching. New government and regulatory mandates will further drive this requirement.

Quantum Secure Messaging in Space: We expect to see more demonstrations of quantum secure messaging in space, showcasing Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) between satellites and/or ground stations. The Singapore-UK Speqtre mission is already in space and we expect it to report first the UK NQTP’s SPOQC mission, Boeing’s Q4S, the Canadian Space Agency’s QEYSSat missions will vie to be next; the EU’s Eagle-1 may be too late for 2026. China also plans for an operational constellation of four QKD satellites in low earth orbit in 2026. Quantum Timing: New deployable quantum clocks with lab-quality accuracy will shake clock markets. Expect deployments in defense and critical infrastructure. Quantum Navigation: Various quantum enabled navigation solutions that can act as a local fallback to GPS will start achieving pre-production status initially for defense applications. Both magnetic map (more appropriate for land) and gravity map (more suitable over or under water) approaches will be utilized. Quantum RF Apertures RF Sensors: Wide bandwidth applications are emerging rapidly. However, their actual electronic warfare deployments are likely to remain classified. Healthcare Diagnostics: Optically Pumped Magnetometer (OPM) Magnetoencephalography (MEG) Arrays for quantum-based brain diagnostics will also be accelerated by interim results from early clinical trials. We hope all of our readers get a good chance to rest up during the holiday break. But then afterwards proceed to strap on your seatbelts. 2026 promises to be a wild and exciting year full of wonderful new developments and we will be thrilled to follow them throughout the year! December 14, 2025