Experts debate when quantum computers could break modern encryption - Digital Watch Observatory

Digital Governance in 50+ issues, 500+ actors, 5+ processes Home | Updates | Experts debate when quantum computers could break modern encryption Quantum breakthroughs are heightening fears that current encryption could soon fail, exposing financial, healthcare, and defence networks. Scientists are divided over when quantum computers will become powerful enough to break today’s digital encryption, a moment widely referred to as ‘Q–Day’. While predictions range from just two years to several decades, experts agree that governments and companies must begin preparing urgently for a future where conventional security systems may fail. Quantum computing uses subatomic behaviour to process data far faster than classical machines, enabling rapid decryption of information once considered secure. Financial systems, healthcare data, government communications, and military networks could all become vulnerable as advanced quantum machines emerge. Major technology firms have already made breakthroughs, accelerating concerns that encryption safeguards could be overwhelmed sooner than expected. Several cybersecurity specialists warn that sensitive data is already being harvested and stored for future decryption, a strategy known as ‘harvest now, decrypt later’. Regulators in the UK and the US have set timelines for shifting to post-quantum cryptography, aiming for full migration by 2030-2035. However, engineering challenges and unresolved technical barriers continue to cast uncertainty over the pace of progress. Despite scepticism over timelines, experts agree that early preparation remains the safest approach. Experts stress that education, infrastructure upgrades, and global cooperation are vital to prevent disruption as quantum technology advances. Would you like to learn more about AI, tech and digital diplomacy? If so, ask our Diplo chatbot!

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