Could the US unlock China’s rare earths grip with AI and quantum computing? - South China Morning Post

AdvertisementUS-China relationsChinaDiplomacyCould the US unlock China’s rare earths grip with AI and quantum computing?Technologies for synthesising substitutes or alloys could cut time required to secure critical materials to just a few years4-MIN READ4-MIN45ListenMake SCMP preferred on GoogleAdvertisementFurther ReadingUS and China defence sectors emerge as key battlegrounds in the race for AIOpinion | China is leading in holistic AI development. 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If you don't want these, tick hereGET OUR NEWSLETTERBy registering, you agree to ourT&CandPrivacy PolicyBefore you go45 Conversationsscmp pollAdvertisementJevans NyabiagePublished: 6:00pm, 15 Feb 2026Updated: 6:05pm, 16 Feb 2026The route to challenging China’s supremacy in rare earth minerals lies in using artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing to create synthetic substitutes or alloys, according to a prominent American expert in AI.Jack Hidary, CEO of SandboxAQ, an AI and quantum technology Alphabet spin-off, said these technologies could cut the time required to secure critical materials to just a few years. This could bypass the traditional 10 to 20 years needed to bring a new mine online while also mitigating the geopolitical risks associated with concentrated supply chains.However, some analysts argue that China’s entrenched dominance in the sector will be difficult to dislodge. They cite the immense challenge of transitioning from laboratory breakthroughs in rare earth chemistry to the kind of large-scale industrial processing and manufacturing that Beijing has perfected over decades.China controls most of the world’s rare earth mining and nearly 90 per cent of all processing and refining capacity. Western governments are racing to build independent supply chains but have struggled to break this stranglehold.China captured the processing market by taking on significant environmental and health risks of a kind that Western nations shunned, allowing it to dominate the “dirty” and chemically hazardous end of the industry.Technical advances alone will not be enough to offset China’s structural advantages, according to one analyst. Photo: ReutersAs strategic tensions have grown in recent years, China has imposed various targeted export bans and restrictions on certain heavy rare earth elements.READ FULL ARTICLEAppSpeaking in Davos at the World Economic Forum (WEF) session on the geopolitics of materials last month, Hidary said AI and quantum computing could be the “twin engines of computation” to discover synthetic substitutes for the Chinese-controlled minerals.He said these technologies were already “smashing right into” mineral and hydrocarbon supply chains, adding that scientists could now use software to design alloys from plentiful materials, rather than having to rely on mining – something that was impossible just two years ago.However, Wei Shen, a political economist and research fellow at the Institute of Development Studies in Britain, cautioned that there were hurdles to commercialising such discoveries, such as stability, scale and cost. A complete industrial ecosystem could not be “built overnight”, he added. 08:58What are rare earths, and why is China’s dominance facing global pushbackWhat are rare earths, and why is China’s dominance facing global pushbackShen said China’s dominance relied on an integrated industrial chain built through decades of investment and cost control. He added that even if laboratory substitutes succeeded, challenging a mature system with such established economies of scale remained “highly unrealistic in the short term”.At the WEF session, Hidary singled out neodymium, a crucial rare earth mineral used to make the powerful permanent magnets found in missile guidance systems, radar and electric vehicles, adding that most of the world’s neodymium production happened in one country: China.Yet the nation is also vying to shape the next phase of the industry, with analysts pointing to “digital mining” – the use of advanced digital technologies in the resources industry – as a key battleground.Shen noted that China was a leader in AI and materials science, meaning that any disruptive discoveries were likely to emerge on a global track where Beijing was capable of leading.Shen said that what the West really lacked was a coherent industrial policy, adding that technical advances alone would not be enough to offset China’s structural advantages.Workers in the rare earth industry face serious health risks related to chronic exposure to toxic dust. Photo: ReutersChris Berry, head of US-based commodities advisory firm House Mountain Partners, added that China’s speed of innovation remained “astounding”, with the country’s manufacturers likely “very advanced in using AI to create novel materials”.SCMP Plus is a new premium news platform that gives you an all-inclusive edge to stay ahead on China news. To access our exclusive content you’ll need to subscribe.TRY FOR FREE or UPGRADEAlready a subscriber?LOG INHe noted that the West had traditionally held an edge in the ability to innovate and create new materials. However, with China now having access to the same toolbox of technologies – thanks to years of heavy investment in AI, advanced computing and materials science – he expected “some exciting inventions” in the years ahead.Berry cautioned that whoever controlled the underlying intellectual property and technology would control the supply chains, a fact with “very serious geopolitical and economic implications”.To this end, the US government recently invested US$400 million in American rare earth producer MP Materials. The investment is linked to the securing of domestic neodymium production at the Mountain Pass mine in California – though Hidary noted that ramping up to full commercial scale would take years.The US also last year formalised a “minerals-for-security” deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, aimed at stabilising eastern Congo in exchange for critical mineral supplies. This pivot towards using security partnerships to lock in critical minerals is also partly behind the US’ renewed interest in Greenland, home to an estimated 1.5 million tonnes of rare earth reserves.US President Donald Trump hosts the signing of a peace deal with Rwandan President Paul Kagame (left) and DR Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington on December 4. As part of the deal, the US was promised access to critical minerals in eastern Congo. Photo: AFP“Traditionally, we had to find, mine and process materials,” Hidary said. By contrast, he added, the advent of quantum and generative AI – specifically, “new and novel AIs that understand physics, materials, energy and engineering” – had changed the game.But Berry countered that much of the excitement rested on “hype and hope”.He suggested that while AI would have an impact, it was still too early to see tangible results in the mining and materials industries.Berry said that transitioning from alloy design to commercial scale took time. History showed that “when societies have innovated and tried to use less of a material, this has meant using more of something else – so we’re solving one problem and creating another”, he added.Jack Lifton, co-chairman of the Critical Minerals Institute, a global industry group focused on critical mineral supply chains, dismissed AI as mere “high-speed computing”, arguing that it would be no substitute for human judgment and experience.He said alloy metallurgy advanced through the work of seasoned engineers and scientists, and that China – by doggedly pursuing an industrial policy that prioritised scale and ability over short-term state profits – had leapfrogged to dominance in alloy production in general, and rare earth alloys in particular.“The foundation of that dominance is a million man-years of experience, also known as trial and error,” Lifton said. “AI cannot compete with that.” World’s first ‘biomimetic AI robot’ debuts in ShanghaiWorld’s first ‘biomimetic AI robot’ debuts in ShanghaiLifton said this depth of expertise was the barrier non-Chinese competitors faced as they tried to restart industries such as rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing – sectors they once abandoned and nearly lost.“Only the determined and experienced have any hope for success,” he added.Kai Xue, a Beijing-based corporate lawyer who advises on foreign direct investment and cross-border financing, said that even if AI and quantum simulation identified viable material substitutes, deployment would remain a hurdle.“Scaling a new material from laboratory discovery to industrial production at volumes sufficient to replace neodymium-based magnets is itself going to be a long, capital-intensive process,” Xue said, suggesting that this path might not be faster than developing new mines outside China.In any case, while large-scale substitution would eliminate China’s chokepoint in rare earth magnets, this would not necessarily be a problem for Beijing, he said.Beijing has used rare earths in response to aggressive US export controls in areas where China remains technologically behind, such as aircraft engines and semiconductor manufacturing.With China aiming for self-sufficiency in these areas by 2040, both the US technology and rare earth supply chains could lose their geopolitical significance and there would be no need for retaliatory action by either side.“Even in a world where AI-driven substitution succeeds, its ultimate impact on China’s strategic position may end up being limited,” Xue said.AdvertisementJevans NyabiageFOLLOWKenyan journalist Jevans Nyabiage is the South China Morning Post's first Africa correspondent. Based in Nairobi, Jevans keeps an eye on China-Africa relations and also Chinese investments, ranging from infrastructure to energy and metal, on the continent.scmp pollAdvertisementBefore you go45 Conversationsrelated topicsUS-China relationsRare earths | Artificial intelligence | Quantum computing | Technology | US-China tech war | China technology | China economy | Semiconductors | World Economic Forum (WEF) in DavosDiscover MORE stories onUS-China relationsFOLLOWnow and stay updated withOpen Questions | War on Iran may spark nuclear arms race, Carnegie scholar saysUS launches trade probe into China and EU in bid to revive Trump tariffsAmid China cable fallout, Chile’s president ends term, calls for unityAdvertisementAdvertisementSelect VoiceSelect Speed0.8x0.9x1.0x1.1x1.2x1.5x1.75x00:0000:001.