Cathie Wood's Message on Quantum Computing Stocks: Wait Another 20 to 40 Years
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By Bram Berkowitz – Jan 24, 2026 at 5:30PM ESTKey PointsQuantum computing may one day be useful for cryptographic decryption.However, Cathie Wood and her team still think that mainstream use of quantum computing is decades away.CEO says this is worth 18 Nvidias. Will this make the world's first trillionaire? ›Cathie Wood's firm, Ark Invest, is known for being a major investor in companies with disruptive technologies.Quantum computing stocks like Rigetti Computing (RGTI 6.05%), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.56%), and IonQ (IONQ 4.22%) have generated some pretty spectacular gains in recent years. Other large tech giants like Alphabet (GOOG 0.68%)(GOOGL 0.79%) are also betting big on quantum and developing their own quantum systems. These companies all believe that quantum computers could one day replace the traditional computer, which is built on bits, the smallest unit of digital information. Quantum computers are built on qubits, which are in a state of superposition and can therefore process information and search for solutions simultaneously, unlike bits, which must process information sequentially. Cathie Wood's firm, Ark Invest, is a big believer in game-changing technologies that can be major disruptors. Ark, for instance, is a major investor in crypto and artificial intelligence (AI). Given this interest in disruptive technologies, one would think that Ark and quantum stocks would be a natural fit. While Wood and her team are excited about the sector, they recently sent a clear message to investors: Wait another 20 to 40 years. Image source: Getty Images. A potential red flag In Ark's Big Ideas of 2026 presentation, one slide said that while quantum is an interesting technology, it is unlikely to be disruptive for decades, due to what has so far been a slow performance curve. Ark points out that despite spending billions on research and development, Google has only managed to double the number of qubits in the quantum system it's developing once in four years. In certain types of quantum systems, the more qubits they have, the more powerful they are. However, stabilizing the qubits can be difficult. Some researchers believe that quantum technology will not only be able to solve problems well beyond the capabilities of today's most advanced supercomputers, but could also be a better way to encrypt data than blockchain technology. Data by YCharts. Under the status quo, where qubits are doubled and quantum error rates are reduced by 40% every four years, quantum computing would not be useful for cryptographic decryption until 2063, Ark estimates. In Ark's most aggressive case, in which quantum companies double the qubit count in a system and reduce the error rate by 40% every two years, quantum could be useful for cryptographic decryption by 2044. It certainly seems like quantum technology is progressing, but it's hard to know when it will reach a critical point where it can be commercialized or used for cryptographic decryption. Meanwhile, the pure-play quantum stocks trade at big valuations and generate very little revenue. That's why I view pure-play names like Rigetti and D-Wave as very risky bets. I also think it's a red flag that Ark, which is typically so bullish on all types of disruptive technology, is essentially telling investors to pump the brakes.Read NextJan 24, 2026 •By Adam LevyThis ETF Could Be a Great Contrarian Artificial Intelligence (AI) Buy Right NowJan 24, 2026 •By Keithen DruryMy 2025 Amazon Investment Prediction Was Early, But Now Is a Genius Time to Buy the StockJan 24, 2026 •By Adria CiminoForget D-Wave Quantum: This AI Behemoth Still Has More Room to RunJan 24, 2026 •By Daniel SparksThis Growth Stock Has Been Absolutely Crushed.
But Is It Finally Time to Buy?Jan 24, 2026 •By Chris NeigerThe Best Stocks to Invest $1,000 in Right NowJan 24, 2026 •By Keithen DruryMy Top 3 Chip Stocks for 2025 Crushed the Market. Here's Why They Can Repeat Again in 2026.About the AuthorBram Berkowitz is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering financials, technology, consumer goods, and macroeconomic trends.
Before The Motley Fool, Bram worked in equity research covering bank stocks and as a reporter for local publications. He holds FINRA Series 7 and 66 licenses, as well as a bachelor’s degree in business with a minor in economics from Syracuse University.TMFBramX@BramBerkoStocks MentionedAlphabetNASDAQ: GOOGL$327.93 (0.01%) $2.61AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOG$328.60 (0.01%) $2.24IonQNYSE: IONQ$47.25 (0.04%) $2.08D-Wave QuantumNYSE: QBTS$25.63 (0.07%) $1.80Rigetti ComputingNASDAQ: RGTI$23.45 (0.06%) $1.51*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.