Bull vs Bear: Is IonQ Stock a Buy or Sell?

By Geoffrey Seiler – Apr 17, 2026 at 11:06AM ESTKey PointsIonQ is a leader in quantum computing accuracy and is working to build an entire quantum ecosystem.However, whether it can commercialize quantum computers and when that happens is very much in the air. Continuing my bull versus bear series of articles, looking at the bullish and bearish cases of some popular stocks, we come to IonQ (IONQ 1.10%). As an emerging industry, quantum computing stocks will have their fair share of both enthusiasts and doubters, and IonQ is no exception. The stock went on a huge run last year, but is now down about 60% from its highs, even after its shares surged after it was awarded a contract in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum (HARQ) program. I'd expect significant volatility moving forward. Image source: The Motley Fool. The bull case for IonQ Quantum computing has the potential to be the next big technology breakthrough after artificial intelligence (AI). By being able to perform calculations exponentially faster than today's best computers, quantum computers open the door for huge advancements across multiple fields. However, one of the biggest problems in quantum computing today is that it's error-proneness. Because quantum computers use qubits, which aren't in a fixed state until acted upon, they are very sensitive to external factors like vibrations, temperature changes, or even electromagnetic interference from things like Wi-Fi, which can cause them to malfunction. However, where IonQ shines is that it has developed one of the most accurate quantum systems, achieving 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity. Its trapped ion approach, which uses actual atoms, and the acquisition of Oxford Ionics' electronic qubit control (EQC) technology, which allowed it to move away from clunky lasers and to microwave-frequency currents embedded directly into the chip's circuitry, has put the company at the forefront when it comes to quantum accuracy. IonQ is also looking to be a complete quantum player. It has made acquisitions in quantum networking, satellite transmission, and quantum sensors. It's also in the middle of acquiring quantum foundry SkyWater, which will let it become vertically integrated. Given that quantum computing is an emerging technology, having control of the manufacturing can help the company better design its quantum chips and move more quickly. The company also has a massive war chest, ending 2025 with $3.3 billion in cash on its balance sheet. About $720 million of that will go toward SkyWater as the cash portion of the deal, but it still leaves it with a lot of money to operate its business and make more acquisitions. IonQ is also starting to generate solid revenue, with its revenue tripling last quarter to $130 million. The company is starting to show it's a real business, not just a science experiment. Meanwhile, as the quantum accuracy leader, it has a massive opportunity ahead. ExpandNYSE: IONQIonQToday's Change(-1.10%) $-0.49Current Price$44.19Key Data PointsMarket Cap$16BDay's Range$43.86 - $45.8252wk Range$23.48 - $84.64Volume1.3MAvg Vol24MGross Margin-2267.11% The bear case for IonQ While IonQ is at the forefront of quantum computing in terms of building a fault-tolerant quantum computer, whether this actually happens isn't a given. Then you get into whether the company will be able to commercialize these computers, which is a whole other challenge. And even if we assume the company will eventually commercialize a quantum computer, with no visible timetable and no indication of how much money the company will spend getting there, it is tough to put a value on the stock today. There is a big difference in how IonQ should be valued based on whether it can commercialize quantum computers within the next five years, versus if it will take 15 years or longer. Then the cost to get to this point matters. The company funds its operations through equity, so how much dilution shareholders will see over the next decade also matters. Meanwhile, while IonQ is a leader in terms of accuracy, it falls short in speed. Competitors have demonstrated much faster quantum computers, but they just haven't been as accurate. If these competitors can solve the error-correction problem, IonQ's accuracy advantage could disappear overnight. The verdict IonQ has significant potential given its accuracy, leadership, and its move to develop an entire quantum ecosystem. However, this is a very speculative stock. If you're interested in the name, I'd buy a small position and tuck it away. In the next 10 years, it is likely to be either worth a lot or next to nothing.Read NextApr 17, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsWall Street's Biggest Bubble Stocks Are Bouncing Back (and I'm Not Talking About AI) -- Don't Take the BaitApr 16, 2026 •By Keithen DruryCould IonQ Be the Next Multibagger?Apr 15, 2026 •By Emma NewberyStock Market Today, April 15: IonQ Surges Over 20% on String of Good NewsApr 15, 2026 •By Keith NoonanIonQ Is Ripping Higher Today -- Is the Stock a Buy Right Now?Apr 15, 2026 •By Rich SmithWhy D-Wave Quantum Stock Keeps Going UpApr 15, 2026 •By Rich SmithWhy IonQ Stock Keeps Going UpAbout the AuthorGeoffrey Seiler is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering technology, consumer goods, healthcare, energy, and materials stocks. Prior to The Motley Fool, Geoffrey was a senior equity analyst at Raging Capital Management, a $600 million long-short hedge fund. He holds a bachelor’s degree in history from Haverford College.TMFFindProfitStocks MentionedIonQNYSE: IONQ$44.20(-1.07%)-$0.48*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.