Where Will Tesla Be in 1 Year?

By Lee Samaha – Dec 18, 2025 at 7:45AM ESTKey PointsTesla's production ramp, including Cybercabs, must be supported by regulatory approvals. The company is likely to have a stronger second half in 2026 than its first.This could be the year that Tesla finally delivers on its unsupervised full self-driving and robotaxi aims. These 10 Stocks Could Mint the Next Wave of Millionaires ›NASDAQ: TSLATeslaMarket Cap$1.6TToday's Changeangle-down(-4.58%) $22.46Current Price$467.42Price as of December 17, 2025 at 3:58 PM ETNext year is set to be a pivotal one for the company's long-term ambitions.Tesla's (TSLA 4.58%) management described 2025 as the "year of the Y," but what will define 2026? One way to describe it could be a year when the chips went all in. The roadmap was set during the third-quarter earnings call, and Tesla is betting big on full self-driving (FSD) and robotaxis. That said, it's likely to be a second-half-weighted year for the company, so investors need to be patient through the year. Here's why. A tale of two halves Tesla will release its fourth-quarter earnings in early 2026, and they are likely to show a sequential decline in electric vehicle (EV) deliveries, which could extend into the second quarter. The reason comes down to the pull-forward in deliveries in the U.S. third quarter, driven by the expiration of the federal EV tax credit at the end of September. That will undoubtedly lead to slowing sales in the fourth quarter. ExpandNASDAQ: TSLATeslaToday's Change(-4.58%) $-22.46Current Price$467.42Key Data PointsMarket Cap$1.6TDay's Range$466.22 - $495.2352wk Range$214.25 - $495.28Volume44KAvg Vol86MGross Margin17.01% As such, don't be surprised if Tesla's overall sales decline sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Indeed, the Wall Street analyst consensus is just such an event, before returning to sequential and year-on-year growth from the second quarter onwards. Data source: Tesla presentations. Chart by author. Furthermore, CFO Vaibhav Taneja has already informed investors that Tesla plans to increase capital spending "increase substantially" in 2026, from approximately $9 billion in 2025. The expenditures to support ramping up EV production (more on that shortly) and to invest in Tesla's AI initiatives, including the Optimus robot. For reference, CEO Elon Musk aims to have the third generation of the Optimus robot in the first quarter of 2026.Advertisement Tesla's big ramp-up in 2026 Musk couldn't have been any clearer on the earnings call in October, due to "clarity on achieving full self-driving, unsupervised full self-driving, I should say, I feel confident in expanding Tesla's production. So that is our intent to expand as quickly as we can our future production." Musk went on to reiterate the determination to ramp production and said that the dedicated robotaxi, Cybercab, would be the "single biggest expansion in production" and start in the second quarter of 2026. Image source: Tesla. Tesla's big bet The production and capital spending ramp up, not to mention the focus on Cybercabs, speaks to Musk's confidence in the ongoing development of Tesla's robotaxi rollout and its unsupervised FSD. Musk recently affirmed via a post on X that robotaxi testing (without any occupant in the car) is underway in Austin, Texas. That would be somewhat in accordance with Musk's aim of having "no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year." Furthermore, Tesla is hoping that the Netherlands vehicle authority (RDW) will approve its FSD in February 2026, an act that could open up a pathway to EUwide approval or, failing that, country-level approvals in Europe. That would be a significant plus for opening new markets for Tesla's FSD software sales and laying the groundwork for the potential deployment of Tesla's robotaxis in Europe. It could also boost Tesla's EV sales, as FSD is a key differentiator for the company's EVs. Image source: Tesla. Where will Tesla be at the end of 2026? If all goes to plan, Tesla will continue to expand its robotaxi coverage, having achieved approval for unsupervised robotaxis (a feature a Cybercab requires, as Musk's initial conception is for them not to have steering wheels and pedals), and growth in EV sales from the second quarter onward. As such, it could end the year with the robotaxi rollout in strong growth mode, backed by Cybercab deployment and FSD growth in Europe. In addition, Tesla's EV sales could receive a boost, with more releases of stripped-down versions of its Y and 3 models. Alternatively, the production ramp and capital spending ramp up may prove misplaced if Tesla doesn't achieve unsupervised robotaxi and FSD approvals (Europe) in a timely fashion. Risk is rising, but so is the potential reward. Whichever way, next year is the year of the all-in bet on FSD. Hopefully, Tesla and the regulatory bodies will deliver.About the AuthorLee Samaha is a contributing Stock Market Analyst at The Motley Fool covering industrials, electricals, energy, materials, transportation, and infrastructure stocks. Prior to The Motley Fool, Lee was a Civil Engineer and Investment Manager. He holds a Bachelor of Civil and Structural Engineering from Southampton University and a Certificate in Investment Management from Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. Lee first cut his investing teeth on The Motley Fool bulletin boards (commonly referred to as the “Fool Boards,”) and he’s infinitely grateful to all of the investors he learned from in this powerful investing community.TMFSaintGermainX@LeeSamahaRead NextDec 17, 2025 •By Jeff SantoroStock Market Today, Dec. 17: Tesla Shares Fall After California Moves to Restrict Autopilot BrandingDec 17, 2025 •By Daniel MillerA Surprising Automaker Aims to Challenge Tesla -- Is It a Real Threat or Just Noise?Dec 17, 2025 •By Lawrence NgaTesla's 2025 Was a Turning Point. Here Are 3 Things Investors Should Know.Dec 16, 2025 •By Lawrence NgaTesla's EV Business Isn't the Star Anymore -- but It's Still the Whole StageDec 16, 2025 •By Neil PatelIs It Too Late to Buy Tesla Stock?Dec 15, 2025 •By Lawrence Rothman, CFAIf You Had Invested $5,000 in Tesla Stock 1 Year Ago, Here's How Much You Would Have Today