Veteran analyst makes jaw-dropping call on Tesla stock
Summarize this article with:
EV giant Tesla (TSLA) has never been short on promises for a bold future.For years, Tesla fans have heard the narrative that Robotaxis would be the next new growth engine as its core EV business cools off.Just as often, though, they’ve been told to be patient, which is why the skepticism around it is understandable.Dan Ives believes that moment could be coming to an end.The veteran tech analyst at Wedbush feels the EV behemoth is finally approaching a “defining moment,” where its long-running Robotaxi narrative evolves from vision to execution.A big part of his optimism is that the early progress already made, along with a relatively conducive regulatory backdrop, is supported by a more precise production timeline.If that happens, Ives forecasts an eye-popping increase in Tesla’s valuation, potentially surpassing $2 trillion (from $1.53 trillion currently). Wedbush’s Dan Ives says Tesla is nearing a defining Robotaxi moment that could re-rate its valuation.Photo by Anna Moneymaker on Getty Images Dan Ives says Tesla is at a “defining moment”Tesla’s Robotaxi vision has been written off rather swiftly over the years, but Ives believes the dismissal is becoming harder to justify. He argues that Tesla’s progress on autonomy is growing at an encouraging pace, with momentum building that could play a key role in turning the bear case on its head.In Ives’ view, AI and autonomous driving alone could be worth nearly $1 trillion, separate from Tesla’s powerful core vehicle business.Related: Goldman Sachs issues urgent take on stock market for 2026Additionally, a recent report from Bank of America cited by Teslarati, which showed off a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) framework, revealed that nearly 45% of Tesla’s value was attributed to Robotaxis.The next three to six months are critical. As regulatory roadblocks clear, Ives expects tangible progress that’s likely to shift the conversation from promises to execution. Additionally, Ives believes that despite the increasing competition in the space, no rival can currently replicate Tesla’s colossal real-world driving data or manufacturing scale.Moreover, Wedbush estimates Tesla may end up controlling 70% of the global autonomous market.What Tesla’s up against in the autonomous driving space:Waymo (Alphabet): The clear U.S. scale leader with an estimated 2,500 robotaxis and nearly 450,000 paid rides per week, according to CNBC. Zoox (Amazon): Transitioning from pilots into broader public access, backed by free early rides in parts of San Francisco.Baidu Apollo Go / Pony.ai / WeRide / AutoX / SAIC: China is aggressively investing in the area and has laid out the green carpet for multiple robotaxi startups across at least 19 cities.The math behind a $2 trillion valuationThat power-packed combo underpins Wedbush’s long-term outlook on Tesla stock, where the value is driven by Robotaxis and robotics. In his base case, Ives feels Tesla’s valuation could surge past $2 trillion within the next year, implying roughly 31% upside from current levels.Related: Cathie Woods buys $13.4 million of tumbling tech stockIn a more bullish scenario, Ives sees Tesla might even reach $3 trillion by the end of 2026, nearly doubling the stock. For perspective, Tesla’s market cap has actually dropped from $1.63 trillion on December 16, 2024, to roughly $1.53 trillion at the time of writing (almost a $100 billion drop).Here’s what other Wall Street analysts think of Tesla:Morgan Stanley cut Tesla to equal weight yet tweaked its price target to $425, saying valuation is stretched while 2026 volumes look choppy. Bank of America bumped its Tesla target to $471 from $341 while keeping a neutral rating, saying Robotaxi and Optimus are driving the bulk of its SOTP. Barclays reiterated equal weight with a $350 target, saying deliveries “likely won’t matter” with the stock trading on autonomy into 2026. Stifel bumped its price target to $508 from $483, keeping a buy rating, citing quicker FSD progress along with a strong Robotaxi roadmap and 2026 forecasts.Robotaxis could re-rate Tesla’s entire business modelRobotaxis could be massive for Tesla, as they could fundamentally change its entire model. So instead of just selling a car, Tesla could operate a high-utilization transportation platform, where software and services scale much more quickly than vehicle deliveries. That’s why Wall Street keeps salivating on that prospect.More Tesla:Tesla fatal crash lawsuit takes a wild turnTesla: what must happen for the $1 trillion payoutTesla accused of not following key lawTesla has more bad news for Cybertruck loversMorgan Stanley laid out the case that partial-to-full automation could potentially create a massive $200 billion market by 2030, while McKinsey feels autonomous driving might generate $300 billion to $400 billion in annual sales by 2035.CEO Elon Musk has been vocal about the massive stakes involved.“The value of the company is primarily on the basis of autonomy,” he said back in 2023.Timeline for Tesla’s Robotaxi rolloutOctober 2024: Tesla unveiled its Cybercab concept, reaffirming production plans for 2026. June 22, 2025: Tesla begins paid Robotaxi rides in a limited test in Austin.December 15, 2025: Musk confirms Austin testing without front-seat safety monitors, a critical milestone toward true driverless ops. April 2026 (claimed): Musk says Cybercab production is slated to begin in Austin. Related: Intel CEO deals spark controversy, debate