TSMC: U.S.-China Negotiations Over Taiwan Likely To Come
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Oliver Rodzianko5.86K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)Comment(1)SummaryTSMC could see a structural re-rating if US–China diplomacy leads to 'soft recognition' of Taiwan's connection to China, reducing geopolitical risk.A credible peace deal that halves perceived war probability could re-rate TSM's P/E by +2–4, implying a 10–20% valuation uplift.TSM faces long-term margin pressure as onshoring to the US and EU increases costs, even as risk declines.28x forward earnings is justified for TSM if war is avoided, AI demand persists, and de-risking costs remain manageable. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images News Since my last TSMC (TSM) (TSMWF) analysis, the stock has gained 12.75% in price, and this analysis is geopolitical in nature to ascertain the company's risk profile amid evolving U.S.-China relations. TSMC's value in cashThis article was written byOliver Rodzianko5.86K FollowersFollowOliver Rodzianko is the Founder and CEO of Invictus Origin, managing the Invictus Hydra portfolio, a high-alpha strategy consistently outperforming the Nasdaq-100 with disciplined cash deployment during market dislocations.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.