Top 10 Economic Insights For 2026

Markit3.51K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryOur base case is for another year of close-to-potential real GDP growth in 2026.Germany's more expansive fiscal stance is expected to have a gradually more positive effect on its growth rate, along with spillovers to the rest of the region.Mainland China’s export strength during 2025 is forecast to lose momentum throughout 2026.Key drivers of the forecast marginal slowdown in India’s annual real GDP growth in 2026 compared with 2025 include high US tariffs on Indian exports, increasing the drag from net exports.Annual real GDP growth rates in many of the larger emerging economies are forecast to slow in 2026, partly reflecting the unwinding of the boost from tariff front-loading in 2025. Getty Images 1. The US economy is not en route to a recession, with growth to be supported by a few key tailwinds Our base case is for another year of close-to-potential real GDP growth in 2026. Various fiscal tailwindsThis article was written byMarkit3.51K FollowersFollowIHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 key business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.Quick InsightsHow will US fiscal policy influence 2026 GDP growth prospects?Personal tax cuts, elevated refunds, and increased federal spending are expected to support close-to-potential real GDP growth, offsetting some financial and structural headwinds.What are the implications of AI adoption for Asia-Pacific economies in 2026?Accelerated AI adoption could boost regional technology exports and data center investment, positioning Asia-Pacific for outsized gains if spending outpaces expectations.How might central bank policy shifts impact sovereign yield curves and currency trends?Extended easing cycles, especially by the Fed, should steepen yield curves and drive a modest US dollar depreciation, with significant bilateral currency variation and unstable debt market dynamics in advanced economies.Recommended For You