Survey results: Expectations for company performance, by industry

Survey results: Expectations for company performance, by industryDecember 18, 2025 | Survey Sven Smit Jeffrey Condon Krzysztof KwiatkowskiCompared with the first three quarters of 2025, survey respondents share more optimistic views for their companies’ future profits and demand.December 2025 As they look ahead to 2026, surveyed executives and managers working in the private sector are more optimistic about their organizations’ performance than they have been throughout 2025. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,1The online survey was in the field from November 24 to December 5, 2025, and garnered responses from 1,011 participants in 81 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. This article reports only on the data for the 911 respondents working in the private sector. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Prior to 2025, the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. most expect profits and customer demand for their companies’ products or services to grow, while overall, workforce size expectations have held steady throughout the year. Customer demand: For the first time since September 2024, more than half of respondents (52 percent) expect customer demand for their companies’ products or services to increase in the next six months. Respondents working in financial services and energy and materials are much more optimistic about demand than they were one year ago.Profits: Sixty-three percent of respondents say their companies’ profits will increase in the next six months—the largest share since last December. Respondents in professional services and financial services are the most upbeat about profits in that time period.Workforce size: Across industries, a plurality of respondents expect their companies’ workforce size to remain flat over the year ahead, as has been true throughout 2025. Respondents working in consumer goods and retail are much more likely now than in the previous three quarters to expect an increase, and now their expectations are in line with last December’s. Conversely, respondents working in professional services are less likely than they were one year ago to expect their company to grow. September 2025 Executives’ outlook on their companies’ prospects in the near term is mixed as they continue to monitor changes in trade policy and relationships. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,2The online survey was in the field from August 27 to September 5, 2025, and garnered responses from 799 participants in 81 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Prior to 2025, the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. a smaller share of respondents than last quarter expect customer demand for their companies’ products or services to decrease in the next six months. But certain sectors—such as business, legal, and professional services—continue to experience a decline in optimism. Nearly six in ten executives expect their companies’ profits to rise in the coming months, although respondents in professional services remain less optimistic. Workforce expectations remain largely unchanged from previous quarters, with a plurality forecasting no change in head count, while just 30 percent anticipate growth. Customer demand: A smaller share of respondents than in the previous two quarters expect demand to decrease (15 percent, down from 20 percent in June and 19 percent in March), with a larger share than last quarter expecting demand to stay the same. While expectations are cheerier overall, optimism among respondents working in business, legal, and professional services has declined over the past four quarters.Profits: Nearly six in ten respondents expect their companies’ profits to increase over the next six months, while 19 percent expect declining profits—largely consistent with our findings dating back to December 2023. After dipping last quarter, positivity among respondents working in energy and materials has rebounded, while respondents in business, legal, and professional services continue to report more cautious responses than they did at the end of 2024.Workforce size: The results show little change since last quarter in expectations for companies’ workforce size overall. A plurality of respondents—44 percent—expect no change, while 30 percent predict an increase in employees and 25 percent expect a decrease. Respondents in professional services and in technology, media, and telecommunications remain much more skeptical that their companies’ workforce will grow than they were at the end of 2024. June 2025 Surveyed executives continue to show guarded optimism about their companies’ prospects in the coming months. Executives’ expectations for their companies’ growth over the next six months are largely the same as last quarter, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.3The online survey was in the field from May 29 to June 6, 2025—before the conflict between Israel and Iran began—and garnered responses from 898 participants in 77 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Prior to 2025, the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. There is more pessimism in service-driven industries than in other industries, while respondents working in advanced industries such as aerospace, automotive, and semiconductors are the most optimistic about their companies’ prospects. Workforce size: Overall, respondents’ expectations for their companies’ workforce sizes have held steady since the March 2025 survey, and respondents are just as likely to predict decreasing head count as increasing head count. But respondents’ expectations in many industries have turned more positive, with a larger share than last quarter predicting their companies will increase head count. Respondents working in advanced industries are much more positive than respondents in other industries, whereas respondents in financial services and professional services have become more pessimistic for the second quarter in a row.Profits: Fifty-four percent of respondents expect profits to increase in the next six months—which is in line with the March survey but the smallest share since September 2022. Respondents in energy and materials and professional services are the least hopeful. In both sectors, expectations are more downbeat now than they were six months ago.Demand: Expectations for customer demand are largely consistent with last quarter. Forty-eight percent of respondents expect an increase in demand for their companies’ products or services in the next six months, compared with 46 percent who said so in March. In fact, there is no significant movement since last quarter among any sector’s responses, although respondents working in advanced industries continue to be the most optimistic. March 2025 Surveyed executives express muted optimism for their companies’ prospects in the next six months. They newly see geopolitical instability as the top obstacle to their companies’ growth. For the first time since March 2022, surveyed executives foresee geopolitical instability as the top risk to companies’ growth over the next 12 months. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, weak demand—which was the most-cited risk in the previous three quarters—is now the second-most-cited disruption, followed closely by changes in the trade environment and trade relationships.4The online survey was in the field from February 26 to March 7, 2025, and garnered responses from 988 participants in 92 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Previous editions of the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. While private sector respondents remain more likely to expect improvement than they are to expect decreasing profits and demand, the shares expecting increasing profits and demand are the smallest in years. At the same time, responses suggest that both workforce sizes and prices are stabilizing. Just 41 percent of respondents say their companies have raised prices for their products or services in the past six months, the smallest share since we began asking that question, in September 2022. Workforce size: Nearly half of respondents (46 percent) expect no change in their companies’ workforce sizes in the next six months. Overall, respondents are just as likely to predict decreasing head count as they are increasing head count. However, the share of respondents expecting their companies’ workforces to grow (28 percent) is the smallest since the June 2020 survey. In every sector, expectations for growth are less common now than in last quarter’s survey.Profits: More than half of respondents—55 percent—expect profits to increase in the next six months, though that is the smallest share since September 2022. While profit expectations among respondents working in consumer goods and retail and in energy and materials have remained consistently upbeat since September 2024, respondents in business, legal, and professional services are less likely than they were at the end of 2024 to expect profit increases.Demand: Forty-six percent of respondents expect an increase in demand for their companies’ products or services in the next six months, the smallest share since June 2020. However, respondents are 2.4 times more likely to expect increasing demand than they are to expect decreasing demand. In a change from the previous two quarters, respondents working in consumer goods and retail are now more pessimistic than those in other industries.Sven Smit is the chair of insights and ecosystems, former chair of the McKinsey Global Institute, and a senior partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office; Jeffrey Condon is a senior knowledge expert in the Atlanta office; and Krzysztof Kwiatkowski is a capabilities and insights expert in the Boston office. These updates were edited by Heather Hanselman, a senior editor in the Atlanta office.Explore a career with usRelated ArticlesCollectionMcKinsey Global Economics IntelligenceSurveySurvey results: Expectations for company performance, by industry: 2022–2024SurveyEconomic conditions outlook, September 2025December 2025 As they look ahead to 2026, surveyed executives and managers working in the private sector are more optimistic about their organizations’ performance than they have been throughout 2025. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,1The online survey was in the field from November 24 to December 5, 2025, and garnered responses from 1,011 participants in 81 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. This article reports only on the data for the 911 respondents working in the private sector. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Prior to 2025, the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. most expect profits and customer demand for their companies’ products or services to grow, while overall, workforce size expectations have held steady throughout the year. Customer demand: For the first time since September 2024, more than half of respondents (52 percent) expect customer demand for their companies’ products or services to increase in the next six months. Respondents working in financial services and energy and materials are much more optimistic about demand than they were one year ago.Profits: Sixty-three percent of respondents say their companies’ profits will increase in the next six months—the largest share since last December. Respondents in professional services and financial services are the most upbeat about profits in that time period.Workforce size: Across industries, a plurality of respondents expect their companies’ workforce size to remain flat over the year ahead, as has been true throughout 2025. Respondents working in consumer goods and retail are much more likely now than in the previous three quarters to expect an increase, and now their expectations are in line with last December’s. Conversely, respondents working in professional services are less likely than they were one year ago to expect their company to grow. September 2025 Executives’ outlook on their companies’ prospects in the near term is mixed as they continue to monitor changes in trade policy and relationships. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,2The online survey was in the field from August 27 to September 5, 2025, and garnered responses from 799 participants in 81 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Prior to 2025, the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. a smaller share of respondents than last quarter expect customer demand for their companies’ products or services to decrease in the next six months. But certain sectors—such as business, legal, and professional services—continue to experience a decline in optimism. Nearly six in ten executives expect their companies’ profits to rise in the coming months, although respondents in professional services remain less optimistic. Workforce expectations remain largely unchanged from previous quarters, with a plurality forecasting no change in head count, while just 30 percent anticipate growth. Customer demand: A smaller share of respondents than in the previous two quarters expect demand to decrease (15 percent, down from 20 percent in June and 19 percent in March), with a larger share than last quarter expecting demand to stay the same. While expectations are cheerier overall, optimism among respondents working in business, legal, and professional services has declined over the past four quarters.Profits: Nearly six in ten respondents expect their companies’ profits to increase over the next six months, while 19 percent expect declining profits—largely consistent with our findings dating back to December 2023. After dipping last quarter, positivity among respondents working in energy and materials has rebounded, while respondents in business, legal, and professional services continue to report more cautious responses than they did at the end of 2024.Workforce size: The results show little change since last quarter in expectations for companies’ workforce size overall. A plurality of respondents—44 percent—expect no change, while 30 percent predict an increase in employees and 25 percent expect a decrease. Respondents in professional services and in technology, media, and telecommunications remain much more skeptical that their companies’ workforce will grow than they were at the end of 2024. June 2025 Surveyed executives continue to show guarded optimism about their companies’ prospects in the coming months. Executives’ expectations for their companies’ growth over the next six months are largely the same as last quarter, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.3The online survey was in the field from May 29 to June 6, 2025—before the conflict between Israel and Iran began—and garnered responses from 898 participants in 77 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Prior to 2025, the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. There is more pessimism in service-driven industries than in other industries, while respondents working in advanced industries such as aerospace, automotive, and semiconductors are the most optimistic about their companies’ prospects. Workforce size: Overall, respondents’ expectations for their companies’ workforce sizes have held steady since the March 2025 survey, and respondents are just as likely to predict decreasing head count as increasing head count. But respondents’ expectations in many industries have turned more positive, with a larger share than last quarter predicting their companies will increase head count. Respondents working in advanced industries are much more positive than respondents in other industries, whereas respondents in financial services and professional services have become more pessimistic for the second quarter in a row.Profits: Fifty-four percent of respondents expect profits to increase in the next six months—which is in line with the March survey but the smallest share since September 2022. Respondents in energy and materials and professional services are the least hopeful. In both sectors, expectations are more downbeat now than they were six months ago.Demand: Expectations for customer demand are largely consistent with last quarter. Forty-eight percent of respondents expect an increase in demand for their companies’ products or services in the next six months, compared with 46 percent who said so in March. In fact, there is no significant movement since last quarter among any sector’s responses, although respondents working in advanced industries continue to be the most optimistic. March 2025 Surveyed executives express muted optimism for their companies’ prospects in the next six months. They newly see geopolitical instability as the top obstacle to their companies’ growth. For the first time since March 2022, surveyed executives foresee geopolitical instability as the top risk to companies’ growth over the next 12 months. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, weak demand—which was the most-cited risk in the previous three quarters—is now the second-most-cited disruption, followed closely by changes in the trade environment and trade relationships.4The online survey was in the field from February 26 to March 7, 2025, and garnered responses from 988 participants in 92 nations representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted based on each respondent’s nation, taking into consideration its contribution to the region’s share of the global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). Previous editions of the survey employed a country-based weighting scheme to align with global GDP (based on purchasing-power parity). The new region-based weighting scheme limits over- or underrepresentation of individual countries and improves weighting efficiency of the data set overall. While private sector respondents remain more likely to expect improvement than they are to expect decreasing profits and demand, the shares expecting increasing profits and demand are the smallest in years. At the same time, responses suggest that both workforce sizes and prices are stabilizing. Just 41 percent of respondents say their companies have raised prices for their products or services in the past six months, the smallest share since we began asking that question, in September 2022. Workforce size: Nearly half of respondents (46 percent) expect no change in their companies’ workforce sizes in the next six months. Overall, respondents are just as likely to predict decreasing head count as they are increasing head count. However, the share of respondents expecting their companies’ workforces to grow (28 percent) is the smallest since the June 2020 survey. In every sector, expectations for growth are less common now than in last quarter’s survey.Profits: More than half of respondents—55 percent—expect profits to increase in the next six months, though that is the smallest share since September 2022. While profit expectations among respondents working in consumer goods and retail and in energy and materials have remained consistently upbeat since September 2024, respondents in business, legal, and professional services are less likely than they were at the end of 2024 to expect profit increases.Demand: Forty-six percent of respondents expect an increase in demand for their companies’ products or services in the next six months, the smallest share since June 2020. However, respondents are 2.4 times more likely to expect increasing demand than they are to expect decreasing demand. In a change from the previous two quarters, respondents working in consumer goods and retail are now more pessimistic than those in other industries.Sven Smit is the chair of insights and ecosystems, former chair of the McKinsey Global Institute, and a senior partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office; Jeffrey Condon is a senior knowledge expert in the Atlanta office; and Krzysztof Kwiatkowski is a capabilities and insights expert in the Boston office. These updates were edited by Heather Hanselman, a senior editor in the Atlanta office.Explore a career with us