Soft CPI With An Asterisk: Reading Between The Lines Of November Inflation
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT8.66K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(5min)Comment(1)SummaryNovember CPI delivered a significant downside surprise, with headline inflation at 2.7% versus 3.1% consensus and core CPI at 2.6%.Market reaction was bullish: S&P 500 futures, small caps, gold, silver, and bitcoin all rose; Treasury yields and the VIX dropped.Concerns remain about data reliability due to questionable shelter inputs and potential distortions from the government shutdown.Odds for a January Fed rate cut increased, but upcoming data and Fed leadership uncertainty may shape near-term market direction. Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images The November CPI report delivered a material downside surprise, with headline inflation printing at 2.7% versus the 3.1% consensus. Core CPI cooled to 2.6%, its lowest level since March 2021, and notably, the "Supercore" reading plunged fromThis article was written byMike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT8.66K FollowersFollowFreelance Financial Writer | Investments | Markets | Personal Finance | RetirementI create written content used in various formats including articles, blogs, emails, and social media for financial advisors and investment firms in a cost-efficient way. My passion is putting a narrative to financial data. Working with teams that include senior editors, investment strategists, marketing managers, data analysts, and executives, I contribute ideas to help make content relevant, accessible, and measurable. Having expertise in thematic investing, market events, client education, and compelling investment outlooks, I relate to everyday investors in a pithy way. I enjoy analyzing stock market sectors, ETFs, economic data, and broad market conditions, then producing snackable content for various audiences. Macro drivers of asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and crypto excite me. My thing is communicating finance with an educational and creative style. I also believe in producing evidence-based narratives using empirical data to drive home points. Charts are one of the many tools I leverage to tell a story in a simple but engaging way. I focus on SEO and specific style guides when appropriate.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.