Real Estate Is Vulnerable Going Into 2026
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Jack Bowman8.27K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)Comment(1)SummaryCommercial real estate remains weak, with office and mall segments hardest hit, and recovery is likely to be slow absent major policy shifts.Industrial, manufactured home, and self-storage CRE have outperformed, gaining 40-50% since 2018, though still below 2022 highs.Residential real estate is distorted by sticky mortgage rates, unmotivated sellers, and home builders offering incentives not seen since 2009.First-time homebuyer demand is weak, with rising median buyer ages and troubling delinquency trends, casting doubt on near-term residential strength.Most interestingly, new construction premiums have entirely collapsed. B2M Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images Regular readers of mine will know that I've been cataloging the 2025 real estate market, particularly commercial ("CRE") like it's my obsession or something. They will also likely remember this chart, which captivated my attention back in September whenThis article was written byJack Bowman8.27K FollowersFollowWriter | Investment Advisor | Top 5% of Experts on TipRanks. You can find me on YouTube and Substack under my name; my weekly newsletter is called The Macro Obsession.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Recommended For You