Pop Mart’s 40% Stock Rout Shows Growing Worry Over Labubu Crash

Labubu mania appears to be ebbing as quickly as it surged, driving a roughly 40% rout for former market darling Pop Mart International Group Ltd. that’s raising questions over the company’s long-term prospects.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Labubu mania appears to be ebbing as quickly as it surged, driving a roughly 40% rout for former market darling Pop Mart International Group Ltd. that’s raising questions over the company’s long-term prospects.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.A disappointing US Black Friday and cooling resale demand have revived comparisons to the 1990s’ Beanie Babies bust, challenging the notion that Pop Mart could become China’s answer to Walt Disney Co. or Hello Kitty owner Sanrio Co. Pop Mart’s North America revenue growth slowed to 424% in the current quarter to Dec. 6 — more than halving from the three months to September — according to YipitData, a New York-based firm that gathers and analyzes alternative data. Bearish wagers against its stock have tripled since November to their highest since August 2023, S&P Global data show.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.“The market is very focused on Pop Mart’s short-term numbers,” said Richard Lin, chief consumer analyst at SPDB International Holdings Ltd. “The biggest question is if it can’t sustain a very high year-on-year growth rate toward year-end, then can it still deliver growth next year with such a high base?”Investors’ growing skepticism has turned the Chinese pop toy maker into one of Hong Kong’s worst performers. The core concern is whether the sharp-fanged creature behind Pop Mart’s 3,200% rally from 2022 lows is a durable long-term character, or a fashion trend whose shelf life is already expiring. Worries accelerated as China’s secondary-market pricing softened — an early warning for collectibles cycles. Jitters fueled a share selloff in early December after high-frequency US trackers pointed to a holiday shortfall. The two-day slump erased nearly 14% and pushed total losses since August’s peak to roughly $24 billion, or about triple Sanrio’s market value.“Sentiment has clearly turned very negative, so I would wait to re-engage,” said Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Financiere de L’Echiquier. “Valuation was already not that expensive late September, but there are a lot of question marks on future earnings-per-share right now.”A Pop Mart spokesperson declined to comment on its stock’s moves and Black Friday sales, but said the company now has 60 US stores and 100 “roboshop” kiosks, and expects numbers to double next year.Conviction is ‘Difficult’ “Having conviction on Labubu is difficult — it’s discretionary spending and inherently hard to model,” said Daisy Li, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management. To be sure, the company’s fundamentals remain extraordinary. First-half 2025 revenue surged to 13.9 billion yuan ($2 billion), more than five times its 2020 full-year sales, driven largely by overseas expansion. The company reported up to 250% sales growth in the three months ended September. Pop Mart has been pushing into entertainment — opening the 40,000-square-meter (431,000 square foot) Pop Land theme park in Beijing, reportedly striking a deal with Sony Pictures to potentially develop a Labubu movie, building an in-house studio for an animated Labubu series and rolling out its POPOP jewelry brand. That’s helping prop up optimists’ argument that Pop Mart’s growth engine is far from spent, citing stronger supply chains, better product-cycle management and more sophisticated global marketing that could extend Labubu’s lifespan. Rising enthusiasm for other characters supports the view that the company has staying power beyond Labubu mania.Sell-side analysts largely agree, with an average 12-month price target of HK$359.23, about 84% above its latest close.“Some profit-taking and short-term correction are normal, but pushing the stock down to trough valuation appears ‘overly preemptive’ — and unjustified,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Dustin Wei wrote in a November note. “The market’s focus on near-term product cyclicality” overlooks the longer-term expansion of Pop Mart’s recurring customer base, they said. Still, Pop Mart’s efforts remain nascent, and haven’t yet proved to many investors that it can build enduring, multi-platform entertainment franchises akin to Disney.Doubt intensified after the company’s holiday showing in the US, a market central to its global ambitions, despite an aggressive marketing blitz that saw Labubu appear in the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade and tour the Empire State Building. Search interest on Alphabet Inc.’s Google peaked over the summer but has cooled steadily, despite high expectations heading into Black Friday. The resale market is showing signs of cooling too. Labubu still dominates collectibles on US site StockX, but items that once doubled or tripled retail prices now often trade below it. The popular sherbet-colored Big Into Energy series sells for about $110 versus its $168 retail price, down from nearly $400 at the peak. Rare editions still do draw premiums — one sold recently for $105, nearly four times its $28 price — though far below the more than $500 fetched in June.“The biggest concern for now is whether the momentum of Labubu and its leading intellectual properties is fading out,” said Xiadong Bao, fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. If Labubu sales fade, the rest of Pop Mart’s stable of characters “may not be sufficient to compensate and maintain the strong momentum previously baked into the price.”—With assistance from Chongjing Li.Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.