Phillies Signing Of Adolis Garcia Has Significant Upside

FILE - Texas Rangers' Adolis Garcia after hitting a solo home run off Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Phil Long, file)Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.The Philadelphia Phillies have addressed their corner outfield need by signing free agent RF Adolis Garcia to a one-year, $10 million contract. Whether that’s enough to put this club over the top and make them a clear World Series contender, or if it sates their fans’ hunger for new free agent additions remains to be seen, but it appears to be a cost-effective move with upside from this angle.Garcia likely slots in as the Phils’ everyday RF, replacing Nick Castellanos, who is still on the roster and is due $20 million in 2026 in the last season of his five-year deal. Brandon Marsh is likely to be the regular LF, with rookie Justin Crawford taking over in CF. Garcia essentially replaces Max Kepler, who signed a deal with identical financial terms a year ago, on the Phils’ roster. Kepler was - not bad? He was arguably worth the Phils’ investment, but wasn’t as good of a fit in 2026 as a potential third lefty OF bat alongside Marsh and Crawford.Kepler was a meh signing in my book, and that’s basically what he turned out to be - fine, with a lower-case f. Garcia, despite batting a subpar .224-.284-.400 in 2024 and .227-.271-.394 in 2025, has much more upside. Why?STRONG BATTED BALL AUTHORITY Garcia’s overall average exit speed has been over a full standard deviation higher than league average in each of the last four seasons. Though his four-year streak of fly ball exit speeds over a full standard deviation above average was snapped in 2025 (it was still over a half standard deviation above), he did post an average grounder exit speed of over a full standard deviation above average (and above 90 mph) for the first time in 2025.MORE FOR YOUThere were only eight AL batting title qualifiers whose average exit speed was over 90 mph in the fly ball, line drive and ground ball batted ball categories, and Garcia was one of them. Hitting your grounders hard is a harbinger of staying power and batting average upside, good news for a guy who’s hit in the .220s the last couple of years.So why has Garcia struggled so much? In 2025, he was exceptionally unlucky on fly balls. Despite well above average fly ball authority, he batted only .268 AVG-.732 SLG in the air, for a 73 Unadjusted Contact Score. He “should have” hit .343 AVG-.983 SLG, good for a 127 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. He’s done better than that in the past, but in no way is he the below average fly ball striker his actual numbers suggest.He was also unlucky on the ground, with an 88 Unadjusted vs. 128 Adjusted Contact Score. The fact that he is not an extreme grounder puller makes that shortfall stand out even more. Adjusted for context, Garcia had a 101 “Tru” Production+ mark, far above his 83 wRC+. And if the fly ball authority comes back, he can be a well above average bat. Why?OTHER BATTED BALL FACTORSIn both 2023 and 2025, Garcia’s fly ball rate has been over a full standard deviation higher than league average. Despite that, his pop up rate has never been higher than the league average range in any of the last three seasons. That’s a very attractive combination.I also measure a couple of other esoteric stats - launch angle standard deviation and bad fly ball rate (percentage of fly balls with launch angles between 35-50 degrees, the higher half of the fly ball range). The first is based on true talent to some extent - the lower the number, the better, and the more consistent the quality of contact. The second is pretty random, the higher number the worse, and can cause offensive numbers to be better or worse than expected in a given season, with regression in the opposite direction likely moving forward.Garcia had a much improved launch angle standard deviation (27.8) and a pretty high bad fly ball rate (40.1%), which are both good signs for his future. This was Garcia’s second best launch angle standard deviation of his career, and along with his improved grounder authority signals that his hit tool may be improving. His bad fly ball rate was the highest of his career, isn’t likely to be repeated, and served to mask those improvements.The elephant in the room is Garcia’s perennially subpar K/BB profile, but even there signs of hope exist. His 2025 24.7% K rate was a career low, and while his 5.1% BB rate matched a career low, on balance I take this as progress. With more success on fly balls, some “respect” walks can be generated and key further progress in this area.So, with all of these good signs, why was Garcia so bad in 2024-25?GLOBE LIFE FIELD IS AN EXTREME PITCHERS’ PARKThe Rangers’ Globe Life Field has very quietly emerged as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the game. In fact, according to my batted ball-based park factors, it posted an 82.2 Park Factor in 2025, easily the most pitcher-friendly yard in MLB. Its 63.5 Fly Ball Park Factor also ranked last, and its 78 HR Park Factor ranked next to last.Obviously, this had an impact on Garcia’s recent offensive performance. And he’s moving to one of the most hitter-friendly yards in the game. The Phils’ Citizens Bank Park had the third highest overall and Fly Ball Park Factors at 112.7 and 122.2 in 2025, and the fifth highest HR Park Factor at 114. Garcia should find his new environs to his liking.So what do we have on balance? A 33-year-old average defensive RF with a strong throwing arm with an average to above average power tool and a potentially average hit tool. Most of his underlying indicators are moving in the right direction. While Kepler was an unexciting signing with a high floor but minimal upside, Garcia has a slightly lower floor but a superior ceiling. This guy averaged just over 32 homers from 2021-23, and while I don’t expect him to quite reach those totals, he could be as productive overall, say in the .260-.320-.470 range. Phils’ fans will take that, though they’d certainly prefer that their club continue shopping in the deeper end of the free agent pool.