Pagaya: A Short-Term, High-Beta Trade Before Markets Tumble
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Oliver Rodzianko5.89K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)Comment(1)SummaryPagaya Technologies offers compelling short-term upside, but its high beta exposes it to significant risk in a likely market-wide de-rating within 12 months.Pagaya's second-stage underwriting and API-first integration drive operational leverage, enabling partners to approve more loans with improved unit economics and limited incremental risk.Despite forward P/E and P/S ratios well below sector medians and ~20% forecasted annual revenue growth, PGY remains sensitive to macro liquidity cycles.I target a 30-50% tactical return over 9 months, planning to exit before a broader market unwind threatens all high-beta tech stocks. powerofforever/iStock via Getty Images I'm a Pagaya (PGY) shareholder, and I love the investment in the current bull market—there are few stocks like it, and we'll get into why it's special. But I'm also a macro investor, and a macro investor doesn'tThis article was written byOliver Rodzianko5.89K FollowersFollowOliver Rodzianko is the Founder and CEO of Invictus Origin, managing the Invictus Hydra portfolio, a high-alpha strategy consistently outperforming the Nasdaq-100 with disciplined cash deployment during market dislocations.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PGY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.