Oracle: OpenAI Is A Huge Wildcard

The Insiders ForumInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(17min)CommentsSummaryOracle (ORCL) now faces a 42% stock decline post-OpenAI deal, with market concerns over balance sheet strain and execution risk.Despite forecasting a roughly 30% bottom-line CAGR through FY2030 and $21 EPS, ORCL's escalating capex and leverage overshadow growth optimism.FY26 capex guidance doubled to ~$50B, driving negative free cash flow and pushing net leverage toward 4.0x, unsettling credit markets.Time to buy the recent decline in Oracle or wait for the falling knife to quit declining? An analysis follows in the paragraphs below. Shinsei Motions/iStock via Getty Images Shares of enterprise resource planning, database management, and burgeoning cloud computing behemoth Oracle (ORCL) are down 42% after achieving an all-time high in September 2025. Since announcing a $300 billion partnership with OpenAI (OPENAI), concerns about the deal’s impactThis article was written byThe Insiders Forum9.03K FollowersFollowWe are a team of analysts led by Bret Jensen, Chief Investment Strategist at Simplified Asset Management. We run the investing group The Insiders Forum where we specialize in small and mid-cap stocks that insiders are buying.

The Insiders Forum portfolio managed by Bret Jensen consists of 12-25 top stocks in different sectors of the market that are attractively valued and have had some significant and recent insider purchases. Our goal is to outperform the Russell 2000 (the benchmark) over time.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.