Nvidia: I'm A Convert, A Big Decline Is Probably Coming (Rating Downgrade)
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Oliver Rodzianko5.85K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)CommentsSummaryNvidia Corporation is now rated Hold due to overvaluation and deteriorating risk-reward asymmetry, despite continued near-term price appreciation.I expect a major market correction in 2027, driven by AI capex growth peaking and subsequent multiple compression, especially for AI semis.Big Tech like Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Microsoft may remain relatively resilient as free cash flows improve, but AI-driven optimism is overextended.I plan to further trim AI positions by H1 2026, anticipating consolidation in late 2026 and a significant downturn in 2027. Amalia Vargas/iStock via Getty Images Since my last analysis on Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), the stock has lost 3% in price. This article represents a significant change of tune from me. You still won't hear me call it a bubbleThis article was written byOliver Rodzianko5.85K FollowersFollowOliver Rodzianko is the Founder and CEO of Invictus Origin, managing the Invictus Hydra portfolio, a high-alpha strategy consistently outperforming the Nasdaq-100 with disciplined cash deployment during market dislocations.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, META either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.