Nebius: Why The Stock Is Trapped In Consolidation
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Yiannis Zourmpanos13.49K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)Comments(2)SummaryNebius has secured hyperscaler-scale contracts, institutional funding, and multi-year demand visibility, positioning it structurally ahead of most neocloud competitors.NBIS trades near $87, below the $92.50 equity raise, with technical, behavioral, and options-related barriers capping upside near $100.September 2025 financing raised $4.2 billion, including $2.75 billion convertibles at $138–140, creating a psychological and mechanical dilution overhang.Q3 2025 GAAP net loss reached $119.6 million, with $432.4 million operating cash burn year-to-date amid aggressive infrastructure buildout.Institutional ownership remains near 48% with 105.6 million shares held, while analysts maintain a $151 average target, implying ~73% upside. Jian Fan/iStock via Getty Images Investment Thesis Nebius Group (NBIS) has already crossed a threshold that most AI infrastructure startups never reach. It has secured hyperscaler-scale contracts, raised capital at institutional depth, and locked in multi-year demand visibility, placing it structurally aheadThis article was written byYiannis Zourmpanos13.49K FollowersFollowHi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 3-5X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 2-3 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NBIS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Quick InsightsWhat is driving NBIS's current consolidation below the $100 level?A combination of technical resistance, institutional breakeven selling, and defensive options positioning has created a structural ceiling, capping NBIS below $100 despite strong fundamentals.Recommended For You