The myth of the imminent Conservative revival

Opinion Conservative party UKThe myth of the imminent Conservative revivalCore goals for 2026 must be survival — to kill off Farage’s claim that only he can offer an alternative to LabourRobert ShrimsleyAdd to myFTGet instant alerts for this topicManage your delivery channels hereRemove from myFT© Ellie Foreman-PeckThe myth of the imminent Conservative revival on x (opens in a new window)The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on facebook (opens in a new window)The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on linkedin (opens in a new window)The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on x (opens in a new window)The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on facebook (opens in a new window)The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on linkedin (opens in a new window)The myth of the imminent Conservative revival on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Robert ShrimsleyPublishedDecember 18 2025Jump to comments sectionPrint this pageUnlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.In the words of the noted political analyst, Ferris Bueller, “life moves pretty fast”. Three months ago, Conservative MPs were muttering the obsequies for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership and marking the days till she was replaced by her openly scheming rival Robert Jenrick. Supporters wondered if history’s great ruling party, reduced to a parliamentary rump at the last election, was finished. This week, the talk in Tory circles is of 2026 as the year the party bounces back.Whisper it quietly, come the murmurings from Tory commentators: 2026 could be Kemi’s year. After a decidedly shaky start, Badenoch appears to have found her footing. She is still a little too prone to shooting from the hip and has been caught out on detail, notably having to unwind an immigration policy. But she is slowly reversing her negative ratings. A strong party conference speech and robust Budget and Prime Minister’s Questions performances have quelled talk of a challenge. Luke Tryl, from the pollster More in Common, says Badenoch is now clearly outperforming her party in the polls and adds: “This shows changing leader is not an answer”.There are some other tailwinds. The government is uniquely unpopular and potentially heading into its own leadership crisis. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is still well ahead but rival parties hope he may have plateaued. Having inherited a party in a dire financial and administrative state, Badenoch is benefiting from some smart hires, notably two peers, Mark McInnes the new Tory CEO, and Stephen Gilbert, a former campaigns director, now a senior political adviser. Above all, the Conservatives have found a unifying cause — a problem to which they can present themselves as the answer. Amid voter fatigue at high taxes and the cost of living, Badenoch believes there is once more a market for a party with a coherent platform of sound money and spending restraint. She will not abandon immigration or culture war causes but her main agenda will be tax cuts, welfare reform and debt reduction. Farage may have ditched his more interventionist promises but Badenoch can argue that only the Tories really believe in pruning the state.So yes, that’s the good news. But still, as Badenoch herself told peers and MPs ahead of the Christmas break, there is “a long road ahead”. A few good reviews at Westminster will help keep her job, but they do not herald imminent revival. Hope should be tempered by reality. The small poll bounce is off a catastrophic low. Next May’s elections in Wales, Scotland, London and other English councils are still likely to be very bad for the Tories and good for Reform. While Farage’s party is challenging for first place in Wales and second in Scotland, the Tories face a thumping in both. Their best hope is to recapture a couple of London boroughs. While the major story is likely to be Labour collapse, a weekend of Reform wins will sustain Farage’s momentum — and the belief that the next election is between him and Labour.From migration to net zero, Reform continues to set the political agenda, portraying both main parties as a failed status quo. A run of negative news, from Farage’s alleged schoolboy racism to the jailing of his former Welsh party leader for accepting Russian bribes, has yet to dent its standing. Privately, Tories hope Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s hardline home secretary, can succeed in reducing the salience of the immigration issue, the cornerstone of Reform’s support.One Badenoch ally says that Labour’s collapse in support “has come too soon, voters aren’t ready to listen to us yet”. Many on her front bench are unknown. Allies admit that a number of local party associations that lost their MP are close to collapse. Ominously for Badenoch, more than a dozen ex-MPs and one sitting member have defected to Reform since the election (admittedly to the improvement of both parties). It is also far from clear that there is yet appetite for Badenoch’s economic message. Anything that sounds like more austerity is likely to alienate voters. So a high degree of caution must accompany talk of 2026 being the Tories’ year. There is still a mountain to climb just to get back in contention. But Badenoch has achieved one task, restoring the party to a degree of relevance.The core goal for 2026 must be to kill off a central Reform strategy — Farage’s claim that the Conservatives are finished and that only he can offer an alternative to Labour. If Badenoch can drag the Tories back to the mid-twenties in opinion polls, she will undermine that core argument. In a multi-party contest, this would allow her to credibly argue that the Tories are still the best anti-Labour vehicle in many constituencies. Above all it will erode the sense of unavoidable Tory decline. There are those who fear that by competing with Reform, Badenoch is alienating more liberal voters. But allies believe that she can win back mainstream Tories and those still nervous of Farage if the party sounds coherent on the economy. Re-establishing Conservative permanence on the political scene will change a lot of conversations about the realignment of the right, forcing both parties eventually to confront the unwelcome question of deals, be they pre- or post-election. But that is all for the future. Badenoch has earned a second chance but expectations must be managed. There is no sign the country yet wants the Tories back; 2026 is still more about survival than revival, but at least that option is back on the table.robert.shrimsley@ft.comReuse this content (opens in new window) CommentsJump to comments sectionPromoted Content Follow the topics in this article Robert Shrimsley Add to myFT UK politics Add to myFT Reform UK Add to myFT Conservative party UK Add to myFT UK Government Add to myFT Comments