Japan's consumer inflation stays above cenbank's target for 44th month, boosting case for a rate hike
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Japan's consumer inflation rate dropped to 2.9% in November, staying above the 2% target set by the country's central bank for a 44th straight month, and further strengthening already strong prospects of a rate hike. Core inflation, which strips out prices of fresh food, remained unchanged from 3% in October, and came in line with Reuters-polled economists' average estimate.This data comes as the Bank of Japan is poised to raise rates to their highest level since 1995 as it concludes its 2-day policy meeting later in the day. The so-called "core-core" inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 3% from 3.1%. A rate hike by the BOJ will likely rein in inflation, bringing it closer to the bank's target. The BOJ, however, has to tread a fine line, as raising rates could crimp an already weak Japanese economy which contracted more than initially estimated in the third quarter. Revised GDP numbers for the third quarter showed that Japan's economy shrank more than initially estimated, shrinking 0.6% quarter on quarter, and 2.3% on an annualized basis.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly said to a business lobby on Wednesday that Japan must pursue proactive spending, rather than excessive fiscal tightening in order to boost growth and tax revenues. She has also been a proponent of a looser monetary policy, and has been critical of BOJ's rate hikes. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe told the same business lobby that the government must raise Japan's neutral rate of interest by boosting the economy's potential growth through fiscal spending and a growth strategy.The "neutral rate" refers to a policy rate that balances economic growth and inflation. "If Japan's neutral rate rises as a result, it would be natural for the BOJ to raise interest rates," Wakatabe said, adding that "The BOJ, however, must avoid raising rates prematurely or withdrawing monetary support too much."The BOJ does not have an official neutral rate forecast, with Governor Kazuo Ueda reportedly saying earlier this month that it was difficult to estimate the terminal rate, and the central bank pegging it at 1% to 2.5%. The yen strengthened marginally to trade at 155.53 after the data release.Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.© 2025 Versant Media, LLC.
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