Initial Thoughts On 2026

David I. Templeton, CFA3.65K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(4min)CommentsSummaryAs the calendar nears turning to the new year, the economy is likely to benefit from the stimulus resulting from the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).The NFIB released its monthly Economic Trends report that surveys small businesses, and one important area noted was the improvement in small businesses that intend to increase hiring.Assuming the stock market does not fall out of bed in the remaining few weeks of December, the S&P 500 would generate a nearly 20% annualized return over the last 3 years. mustafaU/iStock via Getty Images As it relates to the outlook for 2026, it is often said the stock market and the economy are not the same. One reason for this is the fact certain areas of the stock market do wellThis article was written byDavid I. Templeton, CFA3.65K FollowersFollowHORAN Wealth LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor that manages investment portfolios for individuals and institutions. Our firm utilizes a disciplined investing approach that should create wealth for our clients over time. Our investment bias is to invest in companies that generate a steady return over time, i.e., singles and doubles. This singles and doubles approach tends to lead to investments in higher quality dividend growth/cash flow growth companies. On the other hand, there are times when a company's stock price seems to be trading below its fair valuation. Short term gains are possible in these situations. I have been managing investment portfolios for individuals and institutions for over fifteen years and believe investing is like running a marathon and not a sprint. Taking the road less traveled, more often than not, leads to higher returns. Visit: The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors at (https://horanwealth.com/insights/market-commentary-blog)Quick InsightsHow will the OBBBA impact corporate profitability and economic growth?The OBBBA reduces the effective U.S. corporate tax rate to near 10%, likely boosting manufacturing, stimulating consumer spending, and supporting overall economic growth into 2026.What forward indicators suggest improvement in the labor market?Small business hiring intentions, which typically lead unemployment by six months, are rising, implying potential declines in unemployment ahead.What is the outlook for the S&P 500’s returns and market volatility in 2026?With recent annualized returns near 20%, well above the long-term 10% average, I anticipate a choppier, more volatile market in 2026.Recommended For You