How Rising Food Prices Will Steal America’s Holiday Cheer

Trump 2024 Campaign sign.Errol SchweizerTwo new analyses from Food and Water Watch and Groundwork Collaborative show that holidays meals are more expensive this year. While the Trump Administration tries to convince voters that the economy is doing great, Americans are still grappling with record high prices and are pulling back food spending this holiday season.New polling from Data for Progress illustrates that nearly two-thirds of Americans are stressed about holiday prices, with 37 percent saying they are planning to buy fewer items. A majority of people said they are taking some action to brace for high holiday prices, such as buying fewer items, hosting smaller gatherings, or cutting back on travel. Not surprisingly, more than half of voters believe that Trump’s economic policies are to blame for higher prices.According to Groundwork Collaborative, using NIQ data, a full meal is up almost 10% compared to 2024, more than three times the overall rate of inflation.

Since President Trump took office, grocery prices have risen by over 3 percent. Some holiday staples will cost Americans more than 20% over last year’s prices, including onions (56%), spiral hams (49%), cranberry sauce (22%), and creamed corn (21%). Canned fruits and vegetables are up by 5 percent year-over-year, with a 50 percent tariff on steel driving up canning costs for the roughly 80 percent of canned goods that rely on imported steel. And domestic steel manufacturers are also raising prices, since tariffs removed competitive pricing pressure from imports. Aluminum foil is also up 40 percent this year due to higher input prices from tariffs. A similar analysis from Food & Water Watch using Consumer Price Index data found that from January to September 2025, prices for holiday staples increased far above the rate of inflation (2.2%), including turkey at 3%, bread and crackers at 3.9%, canned fruits at 4.5%, canned sweet potatoes, green beans and other canned vegetables at 5% and fresh potatoes at 7.3%MORE FOR YOUAccording to Food & Water Watch Research Director Amanda Starbuck, “Trump promised lower food prices, but has done nothing to make it happen."Ham prices are up nearly 50 percent this year, and beef roasts are also up nearly 20 percent over the past year. Turkey wholesale prices appear to be rising as well, as Avian flu continues to impact flocks and the Trump USDA’s response has been scattershot due to layoffs and budget cuts. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture reported that wholesale turkey prices are up 75% in the past year, and an earlier analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that wholesale turkey prices were up 40%, and retailers were passing part of these hikes along to customers. Retailers typically use frozen turkeys as a key value item to get customers in the door while making higher margins on the rest of their holiday offerings, such as baked goods, side dishes and packaged products.Voters are buying less food, according to new data.Groundwork Collaborative/Data For ProgressPresident Donald Trump recently claimed that costs for Thanksgiving meals dropped by 25%, citing a basket from Walmart. But Walmart’s 2025 meal basket offered fewer items and different products, including a smaller turkey and cheaper private label products. It was also missing items that have seen large price jumps, such as onions and sweet potatoes. In a real sense, it was just cheaper because it had less food.A press release from the White House also noted cheaper deals at Lidl, Aldi, and Target. Target, like Walmart, switched out products for cheaper alternatives. Aldi and Lidl are deep discounters known for implementing steep price rollbacks to undercut competitors.Politico recently interviewed Trump, asking him what grade he would give the current economy. His answer: “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” Trump repeatedly promised to bring down the price of groceries “on day one”, but now is trying to assure Americans that things are better than they seem, stating on Fox News, “The polls are fake. We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had.”Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, doubled down on this in a recent interview, claiming, “The American people don’t know how good they have it.” Bessent and Trump echoed former President Joe Biden, who argued that “America has the best economy in the world” while food prices climbed on his watch by nearly 30%, with large declines in food consumption, high interest rates, supply chain disruptions, widespread price gouging and market consolidation, and skyrocketing poverty and food insecurity. While Trump may have inherited Biden’s economy, the new administration has not brought prices down. It is no surprise that November election victories were all about affordability.Trump has since walked back tariffs on coffee and bananas, but this will provide little aggregate relief in the short term, with tariff costs estimated at over $1200 per household already this year and immigration raids leaving crops to rot and putting pressure on food supply chains. Health insurance costs are about to skyrocket and retail price inflation may pick up in the next few months as retailers begin passing tariff costs on to consumers. All grocers are watching how Walmart passes through such tariff expenses and if they will move on price in January. Costco, on the other hand, is suing the Trump Administration in a bid to recoup tariff expenses that they have so far absorbed. Costco’s wholesale model and low markups mean they do not have a lot of wiggle room on cost hikes.

And Albertsons Chief Executive Susan Morris said on a recent earnings call that customers are buying less and using more coupons.On top of all of this, massive cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will reduce or eliminate food assistance for more than 22 million families, while over 47 million Americans are already skipping meals or relying on food banks. If Walmart’s holiday baskets are any indication, it seems like the only way Americans can save money on food this holiday season is just by eating less.