How Beltran, King Felix, Hamels, And Abreu Deserve A HOF Vote

The 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is thin. Even so, here's why several gain my vote. Credit: Ezra O. Shaw /AllsportGetty ImagesAfter 10 years of being a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), I now have the honor of voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Here’s how I plan to look at the criteria now, and going forward, as well as my selections for the 2026 ballot.Just 23 words are offered up as the criteria by which Hall of Fame voters make their selection:“Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”Of the major professional sports, only the BBWAA rules for election mention integrity and character. It does not say that those qualities are subject to during their playing career or after they have retired, a matter that has kept players such as Curt Schilling from being elected, and is endangering Omar Vizquel, who is on his ninth ballot and has come nowhere near the 75% threshold for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.So, how do I interpret this criterion and use it to determine my selections?Let’s start with how performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) play a part in the character and integrity part of the election criteria. I have spent over 25 years reporting on PEDs in baseball. There have been players who have willfully used them to create an advantage. There have been players accused or rumored to have used PEDs. History has shown that during the Steroid Era, players have been alleged to have used, but never tested positive through the league’s drug program. And then there are players who have tested positive and been suspended for it. Given the slippery slope, I cannot in good faith exclude a player for being rumored to have used PEDs. I’m also not so naïve to think that where there has been considerable insight into a player using (i.e. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens), one has to at least factor the possibility of PED use. In those cases, I opt to look at the body of work. While neither of those players is now on the ballot, I would have voted for them based on their numbers prior to being swept up in the steroid controversy. Both were on Hall of Fame trajectories. To add, there is assuredly a player elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame who has used performance-enhancing drugs. As an example, “greenies” – amphetamines – were used by players for decades before the league’s drug policy was in place. Also, androstenedione, a steroid precursor, was widely used before it was banned. However, I do take issue with players who have tested positive for PEDs and been suspended or openly admitted to using them. So, sorry Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Andy Pettitte, you and others like you will never get my vote.MORE FOR YOUThere are other instances of off-the-field character matters that may come into play. As a matter of character, being involved in domestic violence can affect my vote. It really gets into the details that may preclude you from my ballot. On my first, Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones bumped into this problem. Jones was involved in a domestic disturbance with his wife in 2012, arrested, and charged with battery, which he later pleaded guilty to. In Vizquel's case, his wife alleged that he physically abused her in 2011 (which was before their marriage) and in 2016. In 2016, Vizquel was charged with fourth-degree domestic assault after an incident at their home. Look, I know baseball ain’t church and that there are a bunch of unseemly characters already in the Hall. I didn’t have a vote when those players were on the ballot. Some other considerations…I am neither a “Big Hall” nor “Small Hall” guy. There may be times I select the current max of 10 players, but I’m not doing so as a blanket policy. I’m going to follow a player’s numbers in making the determination. I realize that there are some who see the need to vote for close to, if not at, the maximum of 10 votes simply as a math exercise with the voting body to allow players to reach inclusion. That route seeks quotas, and that seems to fly in the face of the process. I will say that the National Baseball Hall of Fame is there to tell baseball’s story. There is the museum, and there is the Plaque Gallery where players elected to the HOF are memorialized. There are countless players represented in the museum who do not have plaques (Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens, for example). So, I tend not to think in terms of not voting for a player as a sign that they are somehow excluded from importance in baseball’s story. I simply may not see them as worthy of the Plaque Hall.I may shift my votes from year to year. I know many bemoan a voter changing a player's selection from one year to the next, but there are a host of valid reasons to do so. If a player is in danger of dropping off the ballot because they were below 5% in the preceding election, I may vote for them solely to allow additional time for the voting body to examine them. I may also pass on voting for a player in a given year if there is a logjam, should that player not be in danger of dropping off the ballot and be, in my opinion, on the cusp of being elected. After that, I will dig deeply into a player’s numbers, using both standard and advanced metrics. I can tell you this: I am not in the old-school line of thinking where a Hall of Fame standard for a hitter was 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, nor am I in the old-school line of thinking that accounts for pitcher wins, where the standard was 300 wins. Those days are done.My selections for the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot:Carlos Beltrán Cole HamelsBobby AbreuFelix HernandezHere’s how and why I’m voting for each.The Case For Carlos Beltrán Carlos Beltran #15 of the New York Mets takes a swing during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals on September 30, 2009 at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)Getty ImagesLet’s start with the elephant in the room: In his final season, Beltrán was on the 2017 Houston Astros team that was caught up in the sign-stealing scandal. In fact, because Beltrán was retired at the time of Rob Manfred’s report on the sign stealing, he is the only player mentioned in the report. Beltrán was hired in November of 2019 as the Mets manager, and yet, due to the report, he was fired before ever having the chance to manage the team. He has never been offered a managerial position since, and due to that, I’m not going to hold 2017’s scandal against him in my reasons to add Beltrán to my ballot. Let’s face it: If not for the scandal, he’d already be in.After garnering 70.3% of the electorate on last year’s ballot, Beltrán seems poised to cross the 75% threshold this year. In his 20-year career, Beltrán has hit all the marks as a Hall of Famer. He is in rare company for players with 2,500 hits, 300 home runs, and 300 steals, joining just Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Andre Dawson, and Steve Finley in that category. He’s one of 38 players who have reached 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBIs. He’s in the rarified air of players who have 500 doubles, 400 home runs, and 300 stolen bases, joining the aforementioned Rodríguez, Bonds, Dawson, and Mays.He was a stolen base machine. He ranks #1 in stolen base rate (86.4% with 312 stolen bases and just 49 caught stealing) in the live-ball era with players with at least 200 steals. He led AL in steals percentage in 2001 and 2003, and led the NL in 2004As a centerfielder, he ranks exceptionally high by wins above replacement (WAR). He has a 70.1 career WAR, putting him in the top 10 for all centerfielders. At #8, only Mike Trout, who is still active, has yet to make the Hall of FameHe also has gaudy defensive numbers to back up his Hall of Fame resume.He led the AL in assists as a centerfielder (1999, 2001, 2002) and the NL in 2006. He led the AL in putouts as a centerfielder in 2001 and the NL in 2008. For double plays turned as a centerfielder, he led the AL in 2001, and the NL in 2006, and led the league for all outfielders for double plays turned in 2001.For awards, he was the 1999 Rookie of the Year, a nine-time All-Star, won three Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers.All of this makes Beltrán an easy selection for me for the Hall of Fame.The Case For Cole HamelsStarting pitcher Cole Hamels #35 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches against the New York Yankees in Game Three of the 2009 MLB World Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 31, 2009 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)Getty ImagesThe newcomers on the 2026 ballot are not exceptionally strong. Okay, let’s admit it, it’s a weak ballot. Out of all the new players on the ballot, only Cole Hamels stands out, and as I’m going to detail, “standing out” doesn’t mean his numbers make for a clear Hall of Fame candidacy. Over his 15-year playing career, he was a four-time All-Star (2007, 2011, 2012, 2016), was the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP. He has exactly one category, “in the black” – a measure in which he led the league in a particular category – and that’s 2008, when he had a league-leading WHIP of 1.082. I’ll throw in that he tossed two shutouts in 2009 that tied him for 1st in the National League, along with the likes of JA Happ, Joel Piñeiro, Bronson Arroyo, and Tim Lincecum.

By Cy Young rank shares, he ranks anemic at 0.17, placing him 232nd. To put that in perspective, Felix Hernandez ranks 18th with a Cy Young share of 2.46.

By Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score (JAWS), created by FanGraph’s Jay Jaffe, he ranks 72nd, sandwiched between Charlie Buffington and Tim Hudson. Not exactly Hall of Fame company.So, why in the ever-loving world would I vote for Hamels? While I wasn’t a voter at the time, there’s still the lingering Johan Santana factor rattling around in my brain. Santana never made the Hall on the BBWAA ballot, which wasn’t overly shocking. He garnered just 2.4% of the vote in 2018, his first year on the ballot, and therefore was dropped. That didn’t seem fair then, and it isn’t now. Starting pitchers seem to be a dying commodity with Hall of Fame voters, as innings pitched dwindle in favor of max effort and stuff, and to me, marginal guys deserve additional time. I’m voting for Hamels to give the writers some time to size him up. That’s it, and nothing more. Is he making the Hall of Fame? It’s doubtful. Does he deserve to live past one year on the ballot? I believe so. Let’s let further research into his career play out beyond one year. Am I voting for him next year…? Let’s see if he even reaches the 5% to stay on the ballot.The Case For Bobby AbreuBobby Abreu of the Philadelphia Phillies runs the bases against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Field on August 20, 2000 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images via Getty Images)Sporting News via Getty ImagesWhen I think of Bobby Abreu, I think of a five-tool player. Over his 18 seasons, he was quick on the base paths and in the field, and a key left hand bat in the lineup. He was a key to consistency hitting over .300 in six seasons (1998-2000, 2002-2004), 30 steals in six seasons, hit 20 home runs in nine seasons, and had over 100 hits and RBIs eight times.But, if there was something about Abreu that deserves extra attention, it was his plate discipline which garnered an exceptional walk and OBP profile. His career .395 OBP ranks him 25 all-time by right fielders, with just seven Hall of Famers in front of him. Eight times his OBP was over .400. He led the league in walks in 2006 with 124 BB.For right fielders by JAWS, he ranks 22nd, sandwiched between Hall of Famers Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero. By WAR, he sits just above Ichiro, and 17 other right fielders in the Hall at #21 with 60.2. For numbers “in the black” he led the National League in triples in 1999, the league-leading as mentioned above walks in 2006, led the NL in doubles in 2002, and a host of defensive metrics (1st in the NL for put outs by a right fielder in 2000; 1st in the NL for right field assists in 1999, 2000; 1 in the NL in double plays turned as a right fielder in 2004 and in the AL in 2009). But in general, he ranks with just 5 points with Bill James' “Black-Ink Test” metric, which is very low.He wasn’t much of an award winner -- Gold Glove in 2007; two All-Star appearances (2004, 2005), Silver Slugger in 2004. He also won the Home Run Derby in 2005.On a thin ballot, I’m giving Abreu my vote. I see the value of getting on base as a key factor in pushing him over the line to gain the checkbox on the ballot.

The Case For Felix HernandezStarting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners celebrates after throwing a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Safeco Field on August 15, 2012 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)Getty ImagesKing Felix is one of those players who had a solid peak career, but one could argue, played a bit too long. A rarity in today’s game, he played all 15 years of his career with one team, the Seattle Mariners. He is one of just five pitchers with 2,500+ strikeouts and 2,500+ innings pitched for only one franchise, joined by Hall of Famers Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson and Bob Feller, and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who retired at the end of the 2025 season.For peak, here are Félix Hernández’s MLB ranks from 2008-2015 (min. 600 IP): Innings pitched (1st, with 1,796.2)Strike outs: (2nd, with 1,724)ERA (3rd, with 2.90)bWAR (2nd, with 41.9)fWAR (2nd with 43.4)He was a 6-time All-Star, including starting the game for the American League in 2014, a Cy Young Award winner in 2010 (and runner-up in 2009 and 2014) won the AL ERA title twice (2010 and 2014), and the Major League ERA title in 2010. But his most memorable appearance was his perfect game on August 15, 2012 against the Tampa Bay Rays.Hernández finished his career as the Mariners' all-time leader in strikeouts (2,524), wins (169), starts (418), and innings pitched (2729.2), while his ERA (3.42) is tied for the franchise-best.He won the league ERA title in 2010, and twice won the AL ERA title (2010 and 2014)Again, on a thin ballot, I’m looking at those numbers to push him over the line with my ballot. By Hall of Fame Standards, where the average score for a Hall of Famer is 50, he ranks a 31. By JAWS for a starting pitcher, he ranks 97th, just behind Sandy Koufax and ahead of Burleigh Grimes, both of whom are in the Hall of Fame. He does rank #18 by Cy Young Shares. His 7-year peak WAR is 38.5, when the average Hall of Fame pitcher sees a 7-year peak WAR of 49.8.ConclusionsWhen you knock the PED and domestic violence guys out, after seeing clear winners and logjams removed in prior years ahead of it, the 2026 ballot had me making selections on players that sat right on the bubble. In at least one case (Hamels), I voted to try to get him over the 5% mark on the ballots and live to make the 2027 ballot. Maybe the thin 2026 ballot is just what a first-time voter needs to dig deep.