U.S. Curve Outlook: Why U.S. Treasury Yields Are Surging Before The Fed
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Dean Popplewell4.05K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(5min)CommentsSummaryA first move to signal in markets is the recent move higher in US Treasuries across the curve.The speech from NY Fed's Williams, a very influential speaker, affected markets on a large scale.The reasoning behind this move is a microcosm of the 2025 trend: A fear of an influenced Federal Reserve, which may fast-forward its rate cut cycle at the cost of their data dependency - or even their independence! Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images By Elior Manier We will now turn to a more technical look into the US curve, a 10-Year bond chart to see what's going on behind the pricing for tomorrow's meeting, and provide a few moreThis article was written byDean Popplewell4.05K FollowersFollowDean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.Quick InsightsHow could a hawkish 25 bps cut affect asset classes?A hawkish cut would likely cause short-end yields to rise, long-end yields to remain stable, stock indexes to correct, and the US dollar to consolidate within its current range.What market signals suggest about the Fed's perceived independence?Curve flattening and recent bond moves indicate investor concern that the Fed may be less data-dependent or influenced, raising debasement trade fears and uncertainty about future policy.What are the key risks if the Fed delivers a dovish cut or pause?A dovish cut could trigger aggressive front-loading of rate cuts, sharp dollar declines, stock surges with volatility, and metals rallying; a dovish pause may spark dollar strength and volatile equity ranges.Recommended For You