Can RIVN Stock Beat the Market in 2026?

By Rich Smith – Dec 19, 2025 at 8:45AM ESTKey PointsRivian stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 130 percentage points since its IPO.Rivian has also outperformed the S&P by a factor of two this year.These 10 Stocks Could Mint the Next Wave of Millionaires ›NASDAQ: RIVNRivian AutomotiveMarket Cap$25BToday's Changeangle-down(15.03%) $2.65Current Price$20.28Price as of December 18, 2025 at 4:00 PM ETRivian's stock took off this year as EV subsidies disappeared and Ford bowed out of the electric trucks market.Rivian Automotive (RIVN +15.03%) stock is on a roll -- although the roll is kind of rocky. Shares of the electric truck maker have been trading publicly for more than four years now. Since their late 2021 initial public offering (IPO), however, they've mostly been trading down. As a result, Rivian stock has lost 81% of its valuation at IPO -- versus a 47% gain for the S&P 500. Image source: Rivian. Have you driven a Rivian lately? And yet, Rivian stock seems to have caught its second wind lately. 2025 was an odd year for this to happen, what with Rivian being an electric vehicle company, and Congress having just repealed the $7,500 electric vehicle (EV) tax credit this year. Regardless, in 2025, Rivian shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by a factor of 2, producing returns exceeding 32% for shareholders, compared to 14.2% for the S&P. Admittedly, the scale of the above chart makes it hard to notice. Zoom in on the performance over the last 12 months, though, and it's much clearer how Rivian has outperformed the S&P 500 this year:Advertisement Data by YCharts. Rivian in 2025 How did Rivian do this, and what are the chances the electric truck company can maintain its momentum in the absence of tax credits -- and in the presence of competition from Tesla and Cybertruck? That's hard to say. In the company's third-quarter earnings report last month, Rivian reported impressive sales growth of 78% year over year and positive gross profits on its sales. Rivian produced only 10,720 trucks in the quarter, but sold 13,201 -- meaning the company successfully sold down inventory that had been cluttering up its parking lot. Rivian still ended up losing $1.2 billion for the quarter, however, and burning through $421 million in negative free cash flow. And this was in the last ever quarter to include federal tax incentives encouraging sales, which drove a lot of business Rivian's way. ExpandNASDAQ: RIVNRivian AutomotiveToday's Change(15.03%) $2.65Current Price$20.28Key Data PointsMarket Cap$25BDay's Range$18.26 - $20.3352wk Range$10.36 - $20.33Volume1MAvg Vol49MGross Margin-159.38% Rivian in 2026 and beyond Rivian may not be so lucky in Q4 and subsequent quarters. Management has high hopes as it prepares to begin selling its new R2 electric SUV in early 2026, noting that its new paint shop will have a "total annual capacity to [paint] 215,000 units" -- versus the approximately 42,500 Rivians the company hopes to sell this year. But while Rivian may be able to continue scaling its business even without government support, this isn't guaranteed. The fact that Ford Motor Company just removed itself from the electric truck market comes as an unexpected bit of good fortune that could help Rivian succeed -- unless it's a sign from above that the electric truck market isn't a good place to be right now! Even analysts who believe Rivian might be worth owning don't expect the company to report its first profit according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) before 2032 at the earliest. There's a long road between now and then, however, and with Rivian's cash dwindling fast, I'd place the odds of Rivian completing the trip at less than 50-50.Read NextDec 18, 2025 •By Howard SmithWhy Did Rivian Stock Soar 15% Today?Dec 18, 2025 •By Chris NeigerBetter EV Stock: Rivian vs. TeslaDec 17, 2025 •By David Jagielski, CPARivian's Stock Is On Track for Its Best Year Since Going Public.

Can It Continue Its Rally in 2026?Dec 17, 2025 •By Reuben Gregg BrewerCould Buying Rivian Stock Today Set You Up for Life?Dec 17, 2025 •By Chris NeigerShould You Buy Rivian While It's Below $20?Dec 15, 2025 •By Will EbiefungIs It Finally Time to Buy Rivian Stock?About the AuthorRich Smith is a contributing Motley Fool defense and stock market analyst covering publicly traded and emerging companies in defense, space, aerospace, and other sectors. Prior to The Motley Fool, Rich practiced international corporate law for Clifford Chance in Russia, and for the Russian-Ukrainian Legal Group in Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington, D.C. He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from the College of William & Mary, a law degree from the University of Baltimore, and a language certification from the International Institute of Russian Language & Culture in Tver, Russian Federation. The Globe and Mail once featured him as “one of the best stock pickers since 2009.”TMFDittyX@RichSmithFoolStocks MentionedRivian AutomotiveNASDAQ: RIVN$20.28 (+0.15%) $+2.65*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.Advertisement