argenx: TED Phase 3 Failure, Vyvgart Growth, And Why I'm Still A Hold
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Stephen Ayers9.26K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryargenx SE retains a Hold rating due to valuation constraints and pipeline setbacks, despite strong commercial execution with VYVGART.Recent termination of TED and lupus nephritis programs narrows pipeline focus, highlighting management's disciplined capital allocation and early stop rules.VYVGART's label expansion and robust operating leverage drive near-term growth, but blockbuster potential in frontline CIDP remains unproven.ARGX's pipeline remains commercially de-risked, but upside is limited without breakthroughs beyond VYVGART, supporting a cautious stance at the current valuation. ablokhin/iStock via Getty Images Overview My last analysis of argenx SE (ARGX) followed an on-the-market safety event for its lead product, VYVGART HYTRULO (subcutaneous efgartigimod). The issue, however, seemed more related to how CIDP patients are transitioned from IVIG to VYVGART HYTRULO, rather than just the drug itself. AsThis article was written byStephen Ayers9.26K FollowersFollowWith a background as a RN, I analyze healthcare-related stocks by evaluating clinical data, treatment guidelines, and market dynamics. After completing my MBA, I expanded into tech, where I focus on identifying key valuation drivers and using DCF modeling for scenario-based forecasts. My writing is influenced by books such as "Superforecasting" and "Fooled by Randomness."Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is intended to provide informational content and should not be viewed as an exhaustive analysis of the featured company. It should not be interpreted as personalized investment advice with regard to "Buy/Sell/Hold/Short/Long" recommendations. The predictions and opinions presented are based on the author's analysis and reflect a probabilistic approach, not absolute certainty. Efforts have been made to ensure the information's accuracy, but inadvertent errors may occur. Readers are advised to independently verify the information and conduct their own research. Investing in stocks involves inherent volatility, risk, and speculative elements. Before making any investment decisions, it is crucial for readers to conduct thorough research and assess their financial circumstances. The author is not liable for any financial losses incurred as a result of using or relying on the content of this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.