Arbor Realty: Supply Hangover Here To Stay
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Romil Patel1.07K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(15min)CommentsSummaryArbor Realty's core exposure is to Sun Belt multifamily loans originated at peak valuations, now facing oversupply-driven rent pressure and rising refinance risk.Despite Fed rate cuts, long-end yields remain elevated, limiting cap-rate relief and keeping property values and borrower credit under stress.Management is defensively shrinking the balance sheet rather than deleveraging, which protects equity but mechanically compresses earnings power.With distributable earnings only narrowly covering payouts, the common dividend remains vulnerable, while preferreds offer a superior risk-adjusted entry point. NVS/iStock via Getty Images Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) is going for 0.74x book with a forward yield of 13.45%, so it shows up on many screeners as a value play. But I remain sceptical due to the current macroThis article was written byRomil Patel1.07K FollowersFollowI focus on thematic investing, crisis investing, systematic options trading through both premium selling and long-vol positions, and discretionary global macro. I have experience with private M&A along with many years of publicly-traded equities and equity-based derivatives trading experience.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.