Another Bread Crumb In The Case For A Depression
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John Early2.2K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(14min)CommentsSummaryThe yield curve’s inversion and imminent un-inversion signal a high probability of a recession, likely beginning within months.Historical analysis shows the depth and duration of the current inversion exceed prior pre-recession periods, suggesting a more severe downturn than recent recessions.While the coming recession should not rival the Great Depression, it is expected to be deeper and more prolonged than the 2020 Covid contraction.Stock market highs may persist briefly, but a full yield curve un-inversion will trigger a heightened risk alert for a significant equity decline. Magone/iStock via Getty Images The Yield Curve Pattern and Recession A yield curve inversion, where the yield for shorter term Treasury securities moves higher than longer term Treasuries, historically indicates a substantial drop in the economic growth rate and usually a recession. When I first started watchingThis article was written byJohn Early2.2K FollowersFollowHave managed money for clients as an independent advisor since 1991. Published a newsletter ECONOMIC LEADS from 1988 to 1993. Have an economics degree from Vanderbilt University. Focus on the macro picture forecasting the US economy and broad stock market. Also have a model to estimate long term equity returns for several countries.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.