After 34 Years, Canada Won’t Rank First For U.S. Exports; Mexico Will

BusinessPolicyAfter 34 Years, Canada Won’t Rank First For U.S. Exports; Mexico WillByKen Roberts,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Two decades analyzing U.S. trade data by port, country, export, importFollow AuthorDec 17, 2025, 05:00am ESTMexico has been the top U.S. export market four of the last five months, moving closer to ending Canada's exceptional run as the nation's top trade partner for U.S. exports.ustradenumbers.comMexico will rank as the top market for U.S. exports in 2025, breaking a stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking Canada has held for at least 34 years and possibly dating back to World War II, perhaps longer.In addition to being the top U.S. export market, Mexico will also finish first in total U.S. imports and, by extension total trade, cementing its position as the nation’s dominant trade partner as the three countries prepare to undergo a mandatory review of USMCA. No country has ranked first for all three since 2006, the last year Canada did so, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. That data goes back 34 years. Canada ranked first for “the trade trifecta” from at least 1992 through 2006. While Mexico is likely to break its own record for total trade, set last year at $839.89 billion, it will likely fall short of Canada’s record for annual U.S. exports, set in 2022 at $354.99 billion, and China’s record for U.S. imports, set in 2018 at $538.51 billion. It can break the record for total trade without setting new highs for exports and imports because its trade is more balanced than U.S. trade with China but with enough imports to far outpace Canada. MORE FOR YOUUSMCA mandatory reviewThe review of USMCA, scheduled to begin next summer but already under way, becomes all the more important given that Canada now ranks second for U.S. imports, ahead of China, as well as second for exports and total trade. Combined, Mexico and Canada now account for 28.37% of all U.S. merchandise trade.During his first term, President Trump and his counterparts in Mexico and Canada, President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, respectively, negotiated USMCA as a replacement for NAFTA, stipulating the six-year review. AMLO and Trudeau have departed, replaced by President Claudia Sheinbaum and Prime Minister Mark Carney.Sheinbaum has largely avoided Trump’s wrath, despite his administration’s aggressive attack on illegal immigration across the Texas border and on immigrants living here as well as his efforts to address drug overdoses related to fentanyl also believed to be crossing the border. Carney and Trump have a more contentious bi-national relationship, although the issues have been less substantive, including Trump’s ire over a television commercial.Expect discussions of the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico to get its share of attention. It is now the United States’ second-largest, trailing only the deficit with China. In 2018, the U.S. deficit with Mexico was five times that of China’s; today, with China’s falling 46.69% since then due to the U.S tariffs on its imports and the deficit with Mexico up 156.29%, it is only 10% less.U.S. exports to MexicoLooking at the specifics of the data, Mexico accounted for 15.71% of all U.S. exports, with Canada at 15.47% and China a distant third at 5.08%, according to the latest Census Bureau data, which is through September. October data was supposed to be released Dec. 4 but is delayed by the government shutdown. While that percentage difference might seem slight, it is equal to $3.87 billion. The last month that Canada ranked No. 1 for U.S. exports was in June, when its total was $272.79 million more than Mexico’s. Mexico has ranked first in six of the first nine months this year, including five of the last six. U.S. exports to Mexico are diverse, with the top five representing energy, technology and automotive.ustradenumbers.comThe top five U.S. exports to Mexico this year are gasoline and other refined petroleum; motor vehicle parts; computer parts; computers; and computer chips.On the import side, Mexico now accounts for 16.17% of all U.S. inbound shipments, with Canada at 11.57% and China at 8.49%. Mexico has ranked first for imports for the last two years, surpassing China.2025 will also be the first year since 2003 that China’s percentage of U.S. trade will have dropped below 10%.U.S. imports from Mexico show the strength of the USMCA automotive supply chain, with four of the top five — including insulated wire and cable — tied to motor vehicles.ustradenumbers.comThe top U.S. imports from Mexico are computers, passenger vehicles, motor vehicle parts, commercial vehicles and insulated wire and cable. The computer category includes servers that are used in data farms for the artificial intelligence industry. The other four are related to the highly integrated North American automotive industry.The U.S. relationship with Mexico will only grow more critical in the years ahead, as it becomes not only America’s top source for imports and total trade partner but, for the first time in decades, its leading export market. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions