2026 Outlook: The Year Is Going To Be Brutal For The Stock Market
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Daniel JonesInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(20min)CommentsSummaryI expect the S&P 500 to end 2026 flat at 6,827, with a mild to moderate recession likely in the next 2–6 months.Valuations are near historic highs, with the risk-free rate exceeding earnings yield, suggesting bubble-like conditions and unsustainable corporate profit growth.Macro data is deteriorating: unemployment is rising, layoffs are up 54% YoY, consumer confidence is near decade lows, and tariffs are pressuring GDP and jobs.My portfolio is concentrated, balancing deep value, recession-friendly, and speculative positions, with plans to allocate new capital to safer assets. Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images About a year ago, I decided to take a crack at what I thought the stock market would do from a performance standpoint for 2025. In general, I was feeling optimistic about matters. The economy was hummingThis article was written byDaniel Jones36.04K FollowersFollowDaniel is an avid and active professional investor. He runs Crude Value Insights, a value-oriented newsletter aimed at analyzing the cash flows and assessing the value of companies in the oil and gas space. His primary focus is on finding businesses that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value by employing a combination of Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy and a contrarian approach to the market and the securities therein. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ET, MPW, UNIT, PFFA, NVRI, GT, MODG, HOV, HOVNP, FNKO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Some of these holdings are through call options.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.